Polarisation is spreading out from Washington to wider society
In the depths of the English countryside, every prospect pleases – until one picks up a newspaper. Then, over the entire globe, there seems to be no reason for pleasure. Tory Leadership race? Given the state of the country, and of the world, it might seem astonishing that anyone wants to be Prime Minister. The Queen’s government must of course be carried on, but rarely in less propitious circumstances. Equally, if we think that we have reasons for pessimism, consider the state of America. A wise Democrat friend of mine thinks that one thing is vital. Joe Biden must run again for the Presidency in 2024, because only he could defeat Donald Trump. What a thought. The greatest, most vibrant democracy the world has ever seen, and the best prospect that it can offer is a dotard versus a scoundrel in a contest to decide which of them is less unfit to be President.
Gloom is exacerbated by the anniversary of a disaster. Withdrawal from Afghanistan was a bi-partisan policy, which means that both sides were wrong. It is also possible that Mr Trump might have changed his – for want of a better word – mind. For there was no reason to leave Afghanistan. The costs had been sunk and the casualties endured. Staying on would not have been too expensive, in blood or treasure. It would have been in accordance with the West’s original objective: to prevent Afghanistan from turning into Taliban-istan. As it was, the humiliating scuttle emboldened our enemies and dismayed out friends. It came after the red lines fiasco in Syria, the failure to restore order in Libya and the prolonged uncertainties over Iraq. Kuwait and Oman excepted, most of the West’s post-war interventions in the Middle East have ended in failure. Even President Reagan failed in Lebanon. “Oderint dum metuant”: The West has ended up with the hatred, but not the fear.
Strong Presidents would help. Instead, starting with Watergate, we have had the criminalisation of political differences, which now seems to be gathering in intensity, and adding to the political divisions which are making the US increasingly hard to govern. To ensure stability, democracies depend on good losers. But In the US, there seem to be none of them, and no good winners either, while many of those who were on the losing side in 2020 still insist that the Election was stolen. In these times, who would be a law officer? If the Attorney General, Merrick Garland, decides to prosecute Trump, a hundred million Americans will believe that he is a criminal conspirator. If the Department of Justice decides that there is no case to answer, a different hundred million will insist that it is no longer entitled to the name “Justice.”
The Trump side does have a couple of strong points. Donald Trump’s safe seems to have been dealt with more harshly than Hillary Clinton’s emails. Equally, if Hunter Biden was Donald Trump’s son, the Liberal media would be devoting all its energies to castigating him. He would appear to be the worst presidential offspring of them all, and is being treated far too leniently.
All this polarisation is deeply unhealthy, and is spreading out from Washington to the wider society. The abortion debate is a good example. Both sides had thoughtful arguments. One might have assumed that there would be a good deal of agnosticism and that at least the contending parties would treat each other with respect. That has not happened. If anything, the culture wars seem to be growing in intensity and the murderous assault on Salman Rushdie will add further inflammation.
Very depressing, and there seems no sign of a path to amelioration. There is one lesson that we in the UK could learn. The House of Commons is proposing to consider whether it was misled by Boris Johnson and there is a complication. If he did, this would appear to be an absolute offence. Even if he could persuade the Committee that the misleading was inadvertent, he would still be guilty.
That is a problem, but there is a solution. It is vital that the headings should go ahead but move rapidly to a conclusion. It is also vital that the proceedings should be conducted in a non-partisan sprit. It would be profoundly unsatisfactory if the Committee were to divide on party lines. That would do more damage to the reputation of the Commons itself than anything which Mr Johnson is alleged to have done. Equally, if he does persuade the hearings that any wrong-doing was unintentional, then unless he is shown to have acted in an utterly reckless manner, the censure should only be a light one.
I suspect that those on the committee will be aware of all this and will act in a proper spirit. Whether that will work to Boris’s advantage…we shall see. Meanwhile, August has always been a dangerous month. We can only hope that this one has now done its worst.