Indonesian ex-general claims victory in world’s biggest election day

As results pour in from the biggest election day in world history, Prabowo Subianto, a former army general with a controversial past, looks set to be declared the new President of Indonesia.

Prabowo, of the Gerindra party, has already claimed victory based on early results from a sample of ballots which indicate that the 72-year-old has secured a landslide victory, with nearly 60 per cent of the votes in a three-way contest. 

Indonesia is made up of more than 17,000 islands, with over 800,000 polling stations spread across the archipelago. The final result will take weeks to be confirmed, as ballot boxes are retrieved from remote islands and jungle communities. But the broad picture – of an outright majority for the Gerindra party – is unlikely to change. 

This is third time lucky for Prabowo. He has twice run for the presidency before but lost on both occasions to Jokowi, Indonesia’s immensely popular departing leader who is stepping down after 10 years in office.

Upon winning re-election in 2019, Jokowi made his former rival a defence minister in his cabinet. Now, Prabowo has indirectly returned the favour by appointing Jokowi’s son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, as his vice-presidential running mate. Securing Jokowi’s backing has also boosted the Gerindra party’s election campaign. 

Prabowo has embraced “Jokowinomics”,  an industrial policy based on Indonesia’s huge nickel reserves. The abundance of this increasingly sought-after mineral, vital for EV battery manufacturing, is amongst the reasons Indonesia – currently the world’s 14th-largest economy – is predicted to reach top-five status by 2040. 

In a country where the average age of Indonesia’s 205 million eligible voters is just 30, Prabowo has also won over young voters by mastering social media in an effort to rebrand himself as a “cute grandad” who loves his cat.

Yet, as Tom Lindsay writes in Reaction, the millennials won over by his animal content and TikTok dance routines are too young to remember the former general’s dark past. 

Prabowo was married to the daughter of Suharto, Indonesia’s late dictator. During his time serving as a general in the Indonesian Special Forces during Suharto’s regime, he stands accused of ordering the kidnapping of more than 20 democracy activists in 1998, 13 of whom remain missing and are presumed dead. Prabowo has admitted to the abductions, but denies being involved in any killings.

Under his command, the special forces are also alleged to have killed and tortured numerous independence fighters in Indonesia’s former territory of East Timor. 

This shaky human rights record saw Prabowo denied entry to the US and Australia for years, although these visa bans were later lifted. 

Critics fear that the country could take an authoritarian turn under Prabowo, who has criticised the influence of western democratic values in Indonesian politics.

What does this mean for the US and China and their mounting rivalry in the region?

Prabowo’s apparent authoritarian leanings doesn’t mean that he will tilt towards Beijing. Under Jokowi, Indonesia has maintained a position of non-alignment on foreign policy, seeking to engage with the US and its allies, as well as China, and carefully avoiding criticism of either Beijing or Washington.

Prabowo – who adheres to a policy of neutrality and has publicly praised the US and China – looks set to continue this delicate balancing act in public. But western diplomats also say he is pragmatic and well-disposed towards western military powers, which will worry China.

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