Prince Andrew might have thought his predicament could not get much worse following the explosive fallout from his interview with Emily Maitlis in 2019. Well, this week it has. Unfortunately, the lesson he would have learnt from that encounter – sometimes it’s advisable to say nothing – is unlikely to help him now.

It has been five days since his long-time accuser, Virginia Roberts Giuffre, launched a civil lawsuit against him in New York, alleging sexual abuse, and he has still not uttered a word.

The silence from the Duke of York is in sharp contrast to the verbal onslaught from the other side, including from Giuffre’s lawyer, David Boies, who has said other women would testify against him.

The Queen’s third and some say favourite child has fled to Balmoral where his mother is spending the summer. Joining him there are his former wife, Sarah Ferguson, and, at the last count, one of his adoring daughters. Oh, to be a flunkie, if just for a few days, at the Scottish retreat. One can only imagine the tone and content of the conversations.

The Duke has consistently denied the allegations against him and is supported by some of his family. Ferguson, in particular, provides repeated character references, odd for an ex, but we’ve got used to odd in that relationship.

And the Princesses, Beatrice and Eugenie, would surely not be so devoted to their father if they suspected he was anything but a harmless party prince during the days he hung out with the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

As for the Queen, who knows? But the fact that Andrew is there suggests he anticipated a welcome of sorts from the most important person in the family.

However, what he does next may depend on those other senior royals who are increasingly calling the shots, Princes Charles and William. Andrew was given 21 days by the court in New York to respond to Giuffre’s lawsuit. If he does not, the judgment will go against him by default, and he could be sued for extensive damages. The Queen has deep pockets, but the financial costs will be the least of the family’s concerns.

Also, now almost an irrelevance is whether he will return to his frontline royal duties. No chance, according to sources close to Charles. His HRH title is looking increasingly untenable, too, as are his few remaining military titles. And, as reported yesterday, he will be excluded from the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee Trooping the Colour celebrations next year.

Whatever the outcome of the US court case, his past associations, not just with Epstein but with Ghislaine Maxwell, currently in jail in the US awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges, have destroyed his chances of public rehabilitation.

But the greater issue has always been the Windsors’ reputation. Neither Charles nor William, both said to be instrumental in ending Andrew’s days as a working royal, are likely to show much patience for the troublesome Duke.

On Thursday night, Charles arrived at Birkhall, his Scottish residence, prompting speculation that there will be a Prince Harry-style showdown. The net is closing in on Andrew. Although he cannot be extradited to the US in a civil case, Metropolitan Police Commissioner Cressida Dick said “no one is above the law”. The force would review its decision not to investigate whether crimes relating to Epstein were committed in London.

At some point, the Duke must indeed have to mount a defence. Even if his family believes his version of events – that he was innocent, arrogant and reckless –, they know that public perceptions condemn him. He has pariah status in Britain, and his close protection officers are rumoured to have assigned him an unprintable nickname (no, not Randy).

He lingers at the bottom of royal popularity polls. Although, according to a YouGov survey in July, he was beaten to the last spot, at least among baby boomers (people around his age), by Prince Harry.

The parallels with his nephew are not lost on those of us who remember Andrew as a young prince, caddish rather than creepy and, like Harry, rootless once his best (armed services) years were behind him.
Before Charles got married and had his sons, Andrew was the spare to the heir, and, like Harry, his star waned as he dropped down the pecking order.

What is a redundant royal to do? Maybe if Andrew had met a Meghan, he would have found a purpose, even a Californian one, which would have been preferable to the company he chose to keep. There are echoes of Princess Margaret too, a trailblazer in royal ruin, but perhaps only truly destructive to herself.

Andrew has turned out to be an enormous embarrassment for the monarchy, and something will have to be done about him before he brings down the institution with him.

After more than a decade in disgrace, his family must accept he will probably never clear his name. It will be tempting for senior royals just to disown him and hope he is forgotten, but forcing him to face his fate – by going to the US if necessary – would be better for them in the long run, if not for him.