Putin and Xi’s diplomacy is straight from the Cold War playbook
My Cold War enemy’s enemy is my friend. It worked for the Americans in the 1970s following the Nixon-Mao Summit. We see a version of it in this week’s Putin-Xi virtual meeting.
In 1972 President Richard Nixon took advantage of the bitter Sino/Soviet split of the previous decade. As early as 1961 the Chinese Communist Party had denounced the Soviet leaders as “revisionist traitors” and in 1969 there was a brief border war between the two countries. Enter Nixon, via Kissinger and “ping pong diplomacy”. There was an immediate reduction of tension between the US and China, allowing each to focus more on the Soviet Union.
In the 21st century both China and Russia view the US as the main adversary. So it made sense for Beijing and Moscow to kiss and make up, form a diplomatic front against Washington, and ensure they don’t need to worry about the long Chinese/Russian border. For now.
Hence the 37th meeting between presidents Putin and Xi. “My dear friend”, said Putin to Xi via video link. “My old friend”, said Xi to Putin. Russia and China must “cooperate to more effectively safeguard the security interests of both parties”, they said to each other as they sat in front of the flags of both countries. When Putin spoke to Joe Biden last week the only flag behind him was Russia’s. Get the message Joe?
The two leaders discussed forming an “international financial structure”. For Putin this might be an urgent issue. In the event Russia invades Ukraine new sanctions may include Russian banks being denied access to the Swift money transfer messaging system. That would mean Russia could not pay for imports or be paid for exports.
For Xi the summit was an opportunity to deflect the criticism of China after it crushed Hong Kong’s democracy and for its treatment of Muslim minority groups. Following the limited diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Olympics he welcomed Putin’s confirmation that the Russian will be attending the opening ceremony of the games. Both men can portray their meeting, and their relationship, as pushback against the US after last week’s Biden-led “Summit for Democracy”.
Military ties between the two states have been drawing steadily closer for several years now. Joint naval exercises have been held in the Mediterranean and the Pacific, and earlier this year the two navies circled the main Japanese island Honshu. In November, both sent bomber jets into Japanese and South Korea’s air defence identification zones. Their ground troops have held joint exercises in both China and Russia.
Trade between them is also rising. China is Russia’s main trading partner. Russia is China’s second largest source of oil and its biggest supplier of weapons. They have plans to build a joint research station on the Moon. They already scratch each other’s backs at the United Nations, promoting or blocking resolutions, they can assist others who oppose the US such as Cuba, Iran, and Venezuela, and they can help each other circumvent sanctions.
However, there are limits to a relationship which is driven more by temporary common interest than shared values. There is no formal treaty alliance between them, and they have sharp differences on several issues. Russia does not support China’s claims to most of the South China Sea and China has not recognised Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Neither would support the other militarily, and probably not even diplomatically, if fighting breaks out in Ukraine or Taiwan.
Their relatively new friendship will not last and both leaders will be aware of Lord Palmerston’s quote about “no eternal allies”. Indeed, they have their own boundary disputes which can be brought up at a time of Beijing’s choosing. The 1969 border clash took place along the Ussuri River on a border drawn up the previous century when Russia forced China into ceding 65,000 square miles of territory east of Manchuria. Russia gained a long Pacific coastline including the city of Vladivostok then known as Haishenwei (The Bay of Sea Slugs). The Chinese still view the agreement as unfair and although the issue was settled decades ago it can be “unsettled” if it suits Chinese politics.
The agreement was drawn up in the Treaty of Peking in 1860. The text speaks of the great bond “of mutual friendship between the two empires”. It was about as sincere as the language of the two “great friends”, Xi and Putin, this week.
For now, it suits them. Just as it suited Nixon and Mao in another age.