Putin eyes Odessa as Kherson falls

The fall of the southern city of Kherson is a bitter blow for Ukraine. It may result in the loss of Odessa and cut the country off from the sea.

Kherson controls a freshwater canal which prior to Russia’s annexation of Crimea provided the peninsula with fresh water. The supply was cut but will now be reconnected. More importantly, the way is now open for land forces to head westwards towards Odessa and, together with amphibious and airborne troops, launch an attack on the city. From there, along the Black Sea coast, it’s about another 100km to the Romanian border. Just to the north of that border is Moldova’s pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria where Russia keeps about 2,000 troops.

The coastline along the Sea of Azov is effectively in Russian hands. If Odessa falls, even if troops do not then march on to the border, Ukraine will no longer have access to ports.

Russia’s Black Sea Fleet operates mostly out of Sebastopol in Crimea. It has total control of the coastline as Ukraine lost almost all its navy after the 2014 seizure of the peninsula. Moscow would also have air dominance although some Ukrainian air defences are operating.

Prior to the war breaking out, the Russians sailed six amphibious landing ships from the Baltic Fleet down to the Black Sea. Together they can carry between 50 and 60 armoured vehicles and about 3,000 soldiers. Other ships from the Black Sea Fleet would also be used in an amphibious assault.

Beach landings are notoriously difficult and, assuming it would be opposed, the Russians would suffer serious casualties as the Ukrainians have a good idea of where they would make land. The coastline on each side of Odessa consists of narrow beaches with relatively high sand cliffs rising just a few metres from the water. Landing zones are limited. Some run straight into urban areas, but there are two gaps about 20 miles east of the city where mechanised troops could land into open countryside. They would still then have to fight through some urban territory to get Odessa and its population of one million people.

After the initial landings the ships would probably head to Sebastopol to pick up second and third waves of assault troops. Airborne troops would have dropped in during the initial phase and hoped to link down to wherever the beach landings came.

Russia will probably have tried to ready any sympathetic elements within the Russian-speaking population of the Odessa region. About 85% are Russian speakers. As in most other areas they are Ukrainian first and oppose the invasion, but there are some who will support a Russian operation.

After Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, pro-Ukrainian and pro-Russian mobs fought in the streets using guns causing several fatalities. The pro-Russians ended up retreating to the city’s Trade Unions House. Each side then threw Molotov cocktails resulting in the five-story building going up in flames and another 48 people being killed, 42 of them inside the building. Some of the survivors of that bitter night may well be looking for revenge.

In normal times Odessa’s port is used for 75% of Ukraine’s sea trade. Kyiv has already effectively lost use of the Sea of Azov port at Mariupol. The Donbas region, occupied in 2014, is home to Ukraine’s heavy industry and prior to 2014 was 16% of the country’s economy. Losing the Black Sea coast would mean that whatever territory the Ukrainian government can hold on to would be landlocked. It still has most of the wheat fields and some industry in western urban areas such Lviv but losing access to sea borne trade would be a massive economic blow.

Kherson was the land gate to Odessa, the sea route is open to the Russians, and the skies are mostly free for them to use. The Ukrainian government can only hope that Moscow is busy elsewhere, or that if the invasion comes to the coast, it can be repulsed. 

That is a slim hope. Slimmer still after Vladimir Putin’s phone call with Emmanuel Macron on Thursday in which Putin signalled he plans to occupy the whole of Ukraine. The port city’s supply lines will be cut. Help is far away.