Putin has jolted NATO back to life

For Putin it’s already “The Day After”. In the run up to the Iraq War the question asked repeatedly in foreign ministries, including the State Department, was “What happens the day after the invasion?” The joint bulldozers of George W, Bush in the White House and Dick Cheney at the Department of Defence smashed the question aside and one of the reasons for the subsequent chaos was the lack of planning.

We don’t know if Putin has thought through day two and the rest of the occupation. Does he quickly replace the government and then partially withdraw? That would not stand, a puppet government would struggle not to be overthrown, it’s leaders would be lucky not to end up upside down hanging from lampposts. Could they stay, and occupy the country for the long term? So far, he has nowhere near the troop levels required. The Americans and allies had 200,000 soldiers and several hundred thousand Iraqi security forces to police a country smaller than Ukraine and never pacified it.

They also had the neighbours to deal with. Iran, Syria, and others ensured the American experience in Iraq was as painful as possible. Most of the 30 NATO countries will now be trying to ensure Russia has a similar experience in Ukraine. Putin’s supposed rationale of keeping NATO from Russia’s borders will have the effect of boosting NATO’s firepower in eastern Europe.

America’s patience at what President Obama called “freeloading” is limited and so some member states will now increase their defence spending. Germany may even be persuaded to build a functioning military. France and the UK, the two most robust militaries in the European wing of NATO will now take an even greater role, with the British in particular gaining influence in eastern Europe.

The front-line states – Poland, Romania, and the three Baltic States – can all expect to not only receive reinforcements, but for them to be permanently stationed on their territory. This bolstering of defences would include more heavy weaponry than in previous years – a replacement for the defunct Conventional Forces in Europe treaty does not look as if it will be negotiated soon.

The key area of the “Suwalki Gap” between the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad (on the Baltic coast) and Belarus will receive a lot of attention as will the Polish border with Belarus. Russian soldiers are not likely to leave Belarus now which means they will be face to face with NATO there.

Non-member states Sweden and Finland have for several years debated joining the alliance, this may be the spur for them to make an  application. They would be viewed favourably.

In the south it’s decision time for Turkey. For years Ankara has played off Russia against the US and in doing so made itself a semi-detached member of NATO. Now it sees Russia militarising the Black Sea and launching an unprovoked war for territory. President Erdogan, who has part-armed Ukraine, may now realise he can no longer play a double game. A return to the NATO fold looks a better bet than Turkish autonomy in such an uncertain time.

Re-invigorated NATO can set about assisting whatever is left of Ukraine. A government in exile could coordinate a guerrilla war which would be funded, armed, and trained by the NATO powers.  

This is predicated on the NATO countries holding their nerve. Can they stand up to the economic and energy pain Moscow can exert? Will President Macron continue to pursue his dream of an EU army? Another casualty of the Ukraine tragedy is the EU’s foreign policy. It has been shown to be almost irrelevant in the face of naked aggression, but the lesson Macron may draw is that it therefore needs an army to back it up. 

The former German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, understood Putin. She described him as a leader who used 19th century methods of war in a 21st century where others were playing by the rule of law. Where she was wrong was in not acting on her view of Putin, but continuing a long trend in German politics of being too close to the Russian bear.

Putin has demonstrated time and again that he is a blood and soil gangster nationalist. But too many in Europe believed this was an act, too many believed that in our civilised 21st century Europe leaders no longer really behaved that way.  He does, and he will, and there’s only one thing standing in his way.

Trump undermined NATO, Macron called it brain dead, Putin has rebuilt its foundations and shocked it back into consciousness.