Putin recognises breakaway Ukrainian states

In the most astonishing and rambling TV address this evening, President Vladimir Putin confirmed that Russia will recognise the two pro-Russian breakaway states in eastern Ukraine as independent.

Putin’s move to approve the two republics is said to follow a request by the leaders of the regions, which first broke away from Kiev’s control in 2014 and where there has been fighting between the Ukrainian forces and the pro-Russian separatists. It amounts to the latest stage in the dismemberment of Ukraine.

Putin’s TV address came after a long and tortuous day in which the Russian president played cat to Western mice. After a meeting with his security chiefs earlier in the day, the president went on to warn the leaders of France and Germany that he intends to sign a decree later today which would formally recognise Luhansk and Donetsk in the Donbas region of Ukraine. 

Both Chancellor Scholz of Germany and President Macron of France, along with the EU, have voiced their disapproval. Macron has called for an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council and indicated willingness to “continue contacts.”

Prime Minister Boris Johnson and British ministers have taken a consistently robust line on this Russian aggression. This evening, in his Downing Street press conference on the Covid crisis, Johnson condemned Putin’s latest move: “This is plainly a breach of international law.”

On one level, the Russian president’s decision is a cunning one, as by effectively granting independence  to Luhansk and Donetsk it gives him the cover under which to push his troops further across the border into those regions. 

According to local media, the sound of multiple blasts from nearby shelling on the eastern border were heard this afternoon in Donetsk while other reports suggest that more Russian troops are being deployed to the frontline. 

Putin’s latest manoeuvre also puts the West on the spot, making it harder for a unified response. Until now, Western leaders led by President Biden and Boris Johnson have threatened the toughest of economic sanctions against Russia if it were to go ahead with an invasion of Ukraine. As well as sanctions, NATO has moved more of its troops closer to the country. 

But Putin’s decision – which could in time lead to a full-scale breakup of Ukraine – might make it harder for the West to carry out those threats. By backing the breakaway republics, Russia can now de facto complete the militarisation of the area which has a big ethnically Russian population and take control of the region, only a day’s drive away from Kiev.

For now, Western leaders are united in their condemnation of such a move. Chancellor Scholz has pointed out that Russia would be breaching the 2015 Minsk peace accords if it were to recognise the independence of east Ukraine’s rebel republics. The EU has also urged Putin not to recognise the Donbas as an independent, adding that Russia would be breaking international law.

Scholz went on to warn that such a step would be a gross contradiction of the Minsk agreement for a peaceful settlement of the conflict in east Ukraine and a unilateral breach of these deals from the Russian side.

As we know from his behaviour in Georgia and Crimea, Putin has no problem in tearing up agreements or listening to international opponents.

In Kiev, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called an emergency meeting of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council to discuss what action to take if the two states do declare independence. 

Although NATO forces are unable to be deployed in the country, Ukrainian politicians claim that under an agreement signed as part of efforts to remove nuclear weapons from the country in the post-Soviet era, the West promised to protect the country from external attack. 

This was known as the Budapest Memorandum and was signed by three nuclear powers – Russia, the US and the UK – in December 1994. But Moscow has already said the treaty is irrelevant. The big question now is whether the US and the UK can put words into action, delivering tough sanctions that last and more military aid for Ukraine.