Direct conflict between Russia and the West would be “one step away from a full-scale World War Three,” warned Vladimir Putin today, after winning a fifth term as Russian president with a landslide victory of 87 per cent.
“I think hardly anyone is interested in this,” Putin added.
Speaking from his campaign headquarters in Moscow, Putin 5.0 showed no sign of reversing course over Ukraine. On the contrary, the 71-year-old vowed during his victory speech to prioritise his so-called “special military operation” and to strengthen his country’s armed forces.
He spoke confidently of Moscow’s military progress in Ukraine: ”The initiative belongs entirely to the Russian armed forces. In some areas, our guys are just mowing them – the enemy – down.”
Western nations have condemned Putin’s election as neither free nor fair given his refusal to let any genuine competitors stand against him – or, indeed, to allow them to live freely in the country. Ukraine’s President Zelensky labelled the Russian president “a dictator” who is “drunk with power and is doing everything to rule forever.”
Citizens living in Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine – in Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk and Luhansk – have complained of voter coercion, amid reports of the Russian-installed electoral commission marching from house to house with ballot boxes, accompanied by armed soldiers. Old-school Soviet tactics were also deployed, such as enticing voters to poll stations with the promise of free concerts and food.
Engineered vote or otherwise, the election outcome will embolden Putin. According to the head of Russia’s electoral commission, the turnout over the weekend was 77.44 per cent – a record in the post-Soviet era. While the result was already decided, the Kremlin still cares about high turnout as it allows Putin to claim that he has a popular mandate for his war in Ukraine.
Despite Western condemnation of the electoral process, the number of world leaders welcoming the result as legitimate is a glaring reminder that Putin is no global pariah.
The usual anti-western suspects – Iran, China and North Korea – rushed to congratulate him, as did a host of central Asian countries. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi offered the Russian leader “warm congratulations” while messages from some Latin American leaders were perhaps the most glowing of all.
“During this time of instability and violence in the world, amid the need for peace, accord and joy, we mark [Putin’s] triumph as a contribution into the much-needed stability of humankind,” declared Daniel Ortega, President of Nicaragua.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Madur was similarly gushing, expressing admiration for the “flawless electoral process” which “demonstrated [Russia’s] democracy in an exemplary manner.”
Back in January, Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, the chair of NATO’s military committee, warned alliance members that they should prepare for a war with Russia in the next 20 years. Today’s election result, and Putin’s subsequent victory speech, has done nothing to dampen that threat.
Yet this was not the most consequential election of 2024 when it comes to determining the threat – and potential consequences – of direct conflict between Russia and the West. There will be far more at stake when voters across the Atlantic head to the ballot box in less than eight months time.
Donald Trump has consistently threatened to pull out of NATO. Just last week, Moscow-friendly Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban concluded after a meeting with the presidential hopeful that he “would not give a penny” to help the Ukrainians if he is re-elected.
Putin’s re-election was entirely inevitable. Though dangerous, it signals more of the same. A Trump victory could mean a seismic shift. It is an election result Europe must prepare for.
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