Putin’s false flag threatens Moldova

Moscow has accused Kyiv of plotting an attack on the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria, stoking fears of a Russian false flag operation as the Ukraine war enters its second year, writes Mattie Brignal.

Russia’s Ministry of Defence put out a statement today making the extraordinary claim that an “armed provocation” against the region would be carried out in the near future and be used as a pretext for a Ukrainian invasion.

“The Ukrainian saboteurs involved in the staged invasion will be disguised as military personnel of the Russian Federation,” it said. Moldova was quick to dismiss the claims.

It’s an ominous development, suggesting Russia might be about to launch an attack of its own. With Vladimir Putin having little to show for a year of bloodshed and destruction in Ukraine, he may be tempted to roll the dice again by expanding the war – or at least the chaos – into a new theatre.

Moldova has long been in his sights. Pro-Russian sentiment in the small nation of 2.6m people has deep historical roots, and a significant proportion of the public sympathise with Putin’s justification for invading Ukraine.

Then there’s Transnistria, a thin sliver of land on Ukraine’s south-western border. The self-declared republic is a pro-Russian breakaway region internationally recognised as part of Moldova. It receives backing from Moscow, however, and some 1,500 Russian troops are currently deployed there, purportedly as a peace-keeping force.

The pro-Western government in Moldova’s capital Chișinău, has accused Russia of using its forces inside the separatist-controlled enclave to destabilise the country by attacking its infrastructure, including energy links that run through Transnistria to the rest of Moldova.

Signs are that something is brewing. President Zelensky told EU leaders two weeks ago that Ukrainian intelligence had intercepted Russian plans to “destroy” Moldova. It echoed a warning from Moldova’s own security services that they had identified Russian intelligence operations attempting “subversive activities… with the aim of undermining the state of the Republic of Moldova, destabilising and violating public order.”

The Kremlin on Monday described current relations between Russia and Moldova as “very tense” due to its government’s focus “on everything anti-Russian.” And on Tuesday, President Putin revoked a 2012 decree that in part underpinned Moldova’s sovereignty in resolving the future of Transnistria.

Moscow has skillfully exploited Moldova’s weaknesses. Since the invasion of Ukraine last February, the country has struggled to cope with Russia’s severing of gas and electricity supplies and a collapse in foreign trade, devastating the economy and driving inflation up to 30 per cent.

Moldovans have taken to the streets in protest. An influx of 700,000 Ukrainian refugees – proportionately more than any other country has taken in – has complicated the picture.

Brussels has stepped up support for Moldova in the form of financial and humanitarian aid, and recently agreed a security assistance package.

But the attempt to push through reforms demanded by Brussels before Moldova can start accession talks to join the EU further undermined faith in the government. Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita resigned earlier this month, citing a lack of public support. She’s been replaced by the pro-Western economist Dorin Recean.

While an outright Russian invasion of Moldova is unlikely, managing to install a Kremlin-friendly regime in Chișinău would be a way of exerting pressure on Ukraine from the south, much like Alexander Lukashenko’s regime in Belarus to the north.

Even if the false flag scare comes to nothing, Putin’s interest in Moldova isn’t going to fade.

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