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At the core of Joe Biden’s image is a reputation for moderation. In the Democratic primary nearly every candidate on stage ran to the left of him – the Trump years having convinced them that America had to be transformed to be saved. Biden, meanwhile, promised a return to the old days. His proclamation at a dinner for rich donors that “Nothing would fundamentally change” was thrown in his face by loud parts of the online left as proof of his bankruptcy as a candidate. Given that he went on to win the primary and then the general election, shrugging off Republican accusations of a radical agenda with an exasperated “Come on man”, it seems that the barbs rather backfired – moderation was key to Biden’s appeal.
Yet this reputation belies quite how ambitious his agenda actually is. Ultimately, Biden is something of a political weathervane sitting almost exactly in the middle of the Democratic party consensus no matter how it shifts around him – and in recent years the Democratic Party has shifted sharply to the left. The pandemic has been radicalising too, with Biden talking of the need for an “FDR-size presidency” to help the nation recover. Now, just one day into office Joe Biden – Mr. Moderate, Mr. Civility, Mr. Return to Normal – is showing signs he may just shape up to be one of America’s most radical presidents.
Right out of the gate Biden has issued a flurry of executive orders – some aimed at reversing a number of key Trump era policies, others at implementing parts of his agenda.
In the former category, he is ending Trump’s ban on travellers from a number of majority Muslim countries, ending construction of Trump’s border wall, ending Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigrants in favour increasing their legal protections, revoking the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline, tightening fuel standards, pausing energy exploration on federal lands like national parks, rejoining the World Health Organisation, and rejoining the Paris Climate Agreement. This slew of moves are red meat for big parts of the Democratic coalition, and are bound to enrage many Republicans.
In the latter category Biden’s executive orders focus on the immediate task handling the pandemic and its economic fallout. A mask mandate requiring face coverings on everyone on federal property will be passed. While its practical impact will be limited – most federal properties already have these requirements – it’s a symbolic break with the Trump administration’s frequent dismissal of masks and will accompany a broader push to encourage mask wearing.
On the economic front Biden has extended a moratorium on all evictions and foreclosures on federal backed mortgages. The move will doubtless be welcomed by the millions of mainly low-income Americans who benefit from these federal loans and whose finances have likely been affected by the pandemic. He has also paused accrual of interest on and principal payments for federal student loans until October. The move will play well with the Democrats’ voter coalition which skews younger and more educated – and may precede more radical measures to cancel large tranches of student loans completely.
An executive order prohibiting workplace discrimination based on gender identity and sexual orientation will also be welcomed by Democrats, and of course LGBTQ people, across the country.
Leaving aside the practical effects of the volume and sheer ambition of some of these planned executive orders, they are an interesting statement of intent. Barack Obama was slower to push the limits of his executive powers and was spurred in large part by legislative gridlock. Biden, who served under him and whose long Senate tenure left him with a reputation as an institutionalist, seems to have arrived in office with few of these inhibitions. It shows a determination to act boldly and fast.
Still, for really big ticket stuff Biden will need legislation and the biggest challenge here will be the Senate. Split 50-50, Democrats command a wafer-thin majority via Vice-President Kamala Harris’ ability to cast tie-breaking votes – any defections by more conservative Democrats i.e. Senator Joe Manchin from deep-red West Virginia could sink things.
On top of this you have the filibuster which effectively means that any piece of legislation, except those concerning spending, has to command a majority of 60 to pass. Given the current polarisation this may well spell doom for lots of things on the Democratic wishlist such as citizenship for 11 million illegal immigrants, the For The People Act which seeks to make voting easier and improves disclosure of election spending, as well as some ambitious climate initiatives.
Other parts of the Biden agenda, however, might make it through. The ability to pass spending bills with a bare majority is a big deal and the Democrats’ economic views have been shifting sharply left in recent years, accelerated by the pandemic.
The biggest bill we’ll likely see passed soon is the Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, a massive bundle of provisions aimed at providing pandemic relief. The three flashiest provisions in the plan are the proposals to provide $1,400 in direct relief to taxpayers on top of the $600 already issued, direct $160 billion towards national vaccination and testing programmes plus other anti-coronavirus measures, and raise the national minimum wage to $15. Other big ticket measures bundled in the bill include increases to unemployment insurance by $400, $170 billion to help reopen schools, and bailouts for state and local governments whose finances have been blown up by the pandemic.
The bill dwarfs Obama’s $831 billion bailout passed in the wake of the financial crisis, but Democrats seem game to splash the cash. Biden’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen has talked about the need to spend big while interest rates are low. Even Manchin, who grumbles about targeting relief and is sceptical about the $15 minimum wage, seems open to persuasion. Even if he isn’t he certainly hasn’t been shy about suggesting other ways to throw money around, floating the idea of spending up to $4 trillion on infrastructure.
Besides spending, one big move Democrats might be able to make with just 50 votes would be admitting Puerto Rico and Washington D.C. as states. The legal arguments on procedure are up in the air here but if Democrats can do it their Senate majority could increase to a more comfortable 54, as both states would likely return two Democrat Senators apiece. The Senate and Electoral College would continue to skew slightly towards the Republicans on a structural level, but Democrats would eat into the advantage.
When FDR came to power in 1932 many on the left despaired at being stuck with a man they saw as mediocre with a – justified – reputation as an arch-compromiser. History doesn’t repeat itself but sometimes it rhymes…
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Iain Martin and the team make sense of the news, providing commentary and analysis on the stories that matter in politics, geopolitics, economics and culture.