NatWest isn’t the only one that will flee an independent Scotland

The Royal Bank of Scotland, owned by NatWest (formerly RBS), plans to shift its headquarters from Edinburgh to London in the event that Scotland becomes independent. Despite being based in Scotland for 294 years, the Royal Bank considers the move essential because its balance sheet would be too big for the economy should Scotland go it alone.

In five days, that prospect may be a frightening step nearer, with the SNP on course to win the most seats in the Scottish elections, if not an outright majority. Although the party insists the vote on Thursday is not about breaking up Britain, no one in Scotland can talk about anything else after First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s pledge to make an SNP victory a mandate for holding another independence referendum.

Should the Nationalists complete their takeover of Scotland, the venerable bank will not be alone in wishing to flee. I haven’t been in the country as long as the Royal Bank of Scotland and don’t quite share its balance sheet worries, but I will be on the first helicopter if and when the day comes.

Since moving here almost a quarter of a century ago, I have not for a moment – well, hardly ever – longed to be anywhere else. Scotland has seemed like the best of both worlds: uncrowded city life, relatively unchoked roads, and Britain’s loveliest countryside within easy reach. Even during the last referendum, when bitter constitutional politics split the nation in two, my adopted home still felt mostly welcoming, as Scotland came to its senses and Better Together supporters found safety in numbers.

Fast forward seven years, in which the SNP, like all parties in power too long, has become a broken record. Nationalist group think has permeated the culture, and this place feels increasingly like a foreign country. The pandemic has offered a glimpse into how independence might look, with the closing of borders, travel restrictions, and the separatist warning to England to stay away to avoid infecting its neighbour. Nationalist politicians and their brainwashed advisers have wallowed in lockdowns that have kept their English countrymen and women apart from families. Saltire waving loons on bridges over the A1 is now a regular feature of the landscape.

If the SNP were to get its way and take the country out of the UK but back into the European Union, a more permanent hard border – with customs and immigration checks – would spring up overnight, as Sturgeon herself has had to concede. No wonder politicians campaigning in border constituencies are encountering long-settled English inhabitants preparing to up the sticks if the SNP wins the election, without even waiting for a second referendum.

The latest polling suggests that more than half the population backs the Union. Post-Covid, some Scots will be nervous about cutting ties with Treasury furlough funds and UK-wide vaccination procurement. But the SNP is still set to triumph next week. The noise from Yes activists, possibly boosted by both Alex Salmond and the Greens, will then escalate and drown out all discourse about the domestic concerns the government should attend to.

Being English in today’s Scotland is not the problem if your skin is thick, but being anti-Nationalist is. If the SNP dominates the next parliament, there will be no escape, except to England. I don’t think I can bear the monotone rhetoric ringing in my ears for five more years or continue to watch people I like traduced for treachery if they challenge the separatist supremacy. London is starting to look like a safer bet. Houses might be expensive but English taxes will be lower and pensions worth more than in an independent Scotland. Society and politics are pluralistic, and your feet are not held to the flames if you talk down the ruling class.

Some Nationalists are claiming that if Scotland became independent, there would be a dash north to the cuddly new state, but that is about as delusional as Sturgeon anticipating an English raid on (dry) Scottish pubs because indoor hospitality is closed in the south. Property prices here may be buoyant now but watch the market collapse once the Nats have seized the levers of financial control, the tax base disintegrates, and breakaway Scotland fulfils its basket case destiny.

The impact of independence would be two to three times more damaging than Brexit, according to a report earlier this year by the London School of Economics and City University of Hong Kong, with the economy shrinking by at least £11 billion a year.

Even now, some of the most ardent Nationalists – author Irvine Welsh, actors Alan Cumming and David Tennant (following in the footsteps of the late Sean Connery) – prefer not to actually to live here.

The Royal Bank of Scotland is saying what other organisations are thinking; it is just one of the first to put its head above the parapet. Businesses that betray anxiety over the likely fallout of an independent Scotland tend to be branded anti-Scottish. During the 2014 referendum, the owner of an advertising agency told me he wouldn’t dare admit he was a No voter because he was dependent on government contracts.

The bank maintains it is neutral on the constitutional question but the timing of NatWest chief executive Alison Rose’s intervention, a week before polling stations open, is a gift to Unionists.

Seven years ago, several financial giants, including Standard Life, RBS and Lloyds, threatened to abandon ship if the Yes movement won. They helped to sway the debate then, so let’s hope voters take note before the exodus begins.