Red-alert in the Black Sea
Russian airstrikes continued to batter Ukraine’s Black Sea ports in a third overnight attack which killed at least three people, destroyed schools, hospitals and homes and stopped vital exports of food and fertilisers.
Moscow claims that the bombardment of Odesa and Mykolaiv is retaliation for Ukraine’s attack on the Kerch bridge – the only road access Russia has to Crimea. Ukrainian naval drones damaged the vital artery on Monday but only managed to close one of the lanes on the bridge. This week’s revenge bombings have injured at least 27 civilians, damaged commercial and residential buildings – including China’s consulate in Odesa – and destroyed an estimated 60,000 tonnes of grain waiting to be shipped.
Russia’s defense ministry has also warned all Ukraine-bound vessels that it will not hesitate to attack them on the assumption that they are carrying weapons and will presume that their flag countries are at war with Russia as allies of Ukraine. Kyiv has given a similar warning to vessels headed for Russian-occupied ports in Crimea.
According to the White House, Russia has planted additional sea mines in the approaches to Ukrainian ports. Adam Hodge, White House National Security Council spokesperson said: “…this is a coordinated effort to justify any attacks against civilian ships in the Black Sea and lay blame on Ukraine for these attacks.”
The latest escalation in the war comes after Russia refused to renew the UN- and Turkey-brokered trade deal which over the last year has allowed 33 million tonnes of grain to leave Ukraine through the Black Sea for some of the most food-insecure countries in the world. Nearly two thirds of these exports went to low- or middle-income countries. The World Food Programme (WFP) sent around 750,000 tonnes of Ukrainian grain to countries where conflict and drought have made food security extremely precarious, like Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan and Afghanistan.
Russia is understood to have pulled out of the agreement to bargain for a better deal for its own exports of food and fertiliser. Russia and Ukraine between them are the world’s biggest suppliers of grains and crucial fertilisers including potash: Ukraine alone supplies 400 million people with foodstuffs. Specifically, Moscow wanted sanctions lifted to allow insurers to feel confident enough to underwrite Russian exports. It also wanted the Russian Agricultural Bank to be allowed to return to the SWIFT payments system so that exports can continue, as well as the reopening of an important ammonia pipeline crucial for fertiliser.
Whether we like it or not, Russia now has huge leveraging power over Ukraine and the West. If grain supplies don’t start leaving Ukrainian ports soon, many fear food shortages will lead to deadly famines across some of the poorest regions of the world. Last month’s peace mission of African heads of state to Ukraine and Russia was evidence of just how much the continent relies on Ukrainian grain. This time last year some 4.2 million tonnes of grain left Ukraine – now its down to two million tonnes.
The impact of Russia’s refusal is already being felt. On Wednesday, the price of US grain futures rose 8.5 per cent – the biggest rise since the war began. The price is now stabilising again, easing fears that food prices would start soaring again.
As yet, there is little sign of a ceasefire. And no signs that Turkey’s President Erdogan, who brokered last year’s deal with the help of the UN, is able to bring the two sides together for now at least.
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