Red Sea poker game between US and Houthis is win-lose for both sides

US Carrier Strike Group to Houthi HQ – “I’ll see your two-thousand-dollar drone and raise it with my two-million-dollar missile.”  This bet, in the potentially lethal poker game being played out in the Red Sea, is win-lose for both sides, and for bigger stakes than drones and missiles.

The Iranian-backed Houthis, who are attacking ships with drones, win because they burnish their credentials for standing up for the Palestinians. They say they will continue to attack shipping until Israel halts its military campaign in Gaza although the actual goal is to use that war to establish themselves as the strongest force in Yemen and to grow their regional influence. They lose because from now on it’s unlikely their drones will hit their targets.

The US Navy wins because it’s probable all their missiles will blow the drones out of the sky. It loses because each Standard Missile 2 costs about $2 million and it’s thought the Navy has burned through about $80 million worth since the Hamas massacre of 7 October. There are cheaper missiles, but some have a range of just 10 nautical miles, which is a little too close for comfort if you’re a $4 billion navy destroyer.

The situation in the Red Sea, with which Yemen has a long border, has escalated since 9 December, when the Houthis announced they would begin targeting merchant ships with Israeli connections. At least ten attacks followed including several in which vessels were hit. Four of the world’s five biggest container-shipping companies then suspended sailing through the Red Sea as did BP.

The Red Sea links the Indian Ocean with the Suez Canal. Given that about 12% of global trade, and 30% of container traffic passes through it, the major powers had to respond.

Last weekend the USS Carney (a destroyer) shot down 14 drones and the British destroyer HMS Diamond brought down one. On Monday, Lloyd Austin, the US Secretary of Defense, announced a new multinational task force for a mission named “Operation Prosperity Guardian“. It’s thought 19 countries are involved including the UK, Bahrain, Canada, Spain, Seychelles, France, Italy, Netherlands, and Norway. The rest preferred not to be named because they didn’t want to be seen to be associated to a mission to protect assets which might be linked to Israel.

Despite the announcement most shipping companies this week began rerouting vessels around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope despite the extra time and costs involved. Joining a convoy in the Red Sea means manoeuvring to congregate, and potentially then sailing more slowly which could make them easier to target. Many insurance companies are hesitant to expose themselves to that risk.

Since 7 October, President Biden has tried to ensure the Israel/Gaza war does not spread across the region. The Pentagon moved the U.S.S Gerald Ford carrier group into the Mediterranean to deter Hezbollah in Lebanon and has limited its military response to numerous attacks on American targets in Iraq. However, in the face of continued attacks on shipping, the US, which upholds “the rights, freedoms, and lawful uses of the sea for the benefit of all nations” may have to go onto the offensive.

On Tuesday, the Americans sailed the Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group 2 from the Persian Gulf into the Gulf of Aden, a move which gives them the ability to prepare a range of options if the attacks on ships continue. President Biden cannot afford to look weak in election year. If there are more serious incidents, he may well authorize a strike on Yemen even at the risk of escalating tensions with the Houthis ally, Iran.

A look at the history of the Houthis partially explains this risk. They are from the Zaydi sub-sect of Shia Islam. They are allied with their fellow Shia in Iran who use them to extend Tehran’s influence in the Middle East especially against the Iranians’ strategic competitors, Saudi Arabia. Tehran funds, trains, and arms the Houthis in order to have another forward base close to both Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Dynasties of the Zaydi sect have ruled Yemen for most of its history and the Houthis intend for that to continue. Their stronghold is in the mountainous region in the northwest of the country along the border with Saudi Arabia whose Najran and Jizan provinces have significant numbers of Shia who are the minority in Saudi Arabia.  At the beginning of the century, the Houthis began cross-border attacks into Saudi Arabia in response to what they claim were efforts to spread Sunni Islam in Yemen. The “Arab Uprisings” of 2011 morphed into a civil war in 2014 in which the Houthis made significant gains including taking the capital Sana’a. Saudi Arabia and the UAE intervened militarily, without success, and the Houthis responded with drone strikes deep into Saudi Arabia including on the capital Riyadh and the oil fields in the east. Since 2021, an uneasy truce has held.

The Saudis are nervous about an American confrontation with the Houthis who they believe are trying to goad Washington into action. American air strikes would not be like the “shock and awe” we saw in Iraq in 2003, they would be limited. The Saudis fear this would only cause “sustainable losses” on the Houthi side but leave them stronger in the long run. They are also anxious that if the Houthis are hit, somehow the Iranians will have to respond.

All sides know they must calibrate their military action to make a point but one short of escalating the situation. Get it wrong and the stakes rise.

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