Risky Rishi – is the Chancellor really unstoppable?

Talk to members of the Tory tribe about the Chancellor’s campaign to take over from Boris Johnson and a pattern emerges. Repeatedly in recent weeks I’ve heard many variations on the same theme. “It has to be Sunak,” is a summary of the view. The Chancellor polls well, for now, with the public and far better than his colleagues and potential rivals, runs the argument. He’s a well-adjusted, fair-minded, organised technocrat with a dash of charisma who could restore some order in Number 10. It couldn’t be any worse than now?

But… and I keep hearing this but… what about his record as Chancellor? Even allowing for bad luck, and poor projections from the OBR on which he based his high tax approach, his Chancellorship has been a mess. Of course the pandemic means Sunak had to pursue unorthodox policies, but while proclaiming he is really for low taxes and enterprise his main moves have all been in the wrong direction. At the end of his Budget was a weird coda in which he all but distanced himself from his own speech and the measures he had just spent many minutes announcing.

His energy “rebate” policy announced this week was odd too. A government that failed to have a proper energy policy is raising National Insurance on the one hand and then handing back money via another route to off-set rising energy prices. Consumers will pay for it in higher bills in subsequent years.

It’s a puzzle. What does Sunak believe? Does he believe what he says or being properly nice does he say what people want to hear? “Boris is a closed book,” says someone who has worked closely with both men. “That’s nothing compared to Rishi. I have no idea what makes him tick.”

The defence from Sunak’s supporters is that he has been battling all the while to constrain Boris Johnson, fighting to remind a spendaholic PM the money had to come from somewhere. All-out Sunak enthusiasts say he’s been valiant in this effort and gets insufficient credit for it. He’s popular with old school modernisers who tend to be less interested in tax cuts. They say that to win again after so long in office the Conservatives need an extraordinary, fresh, talented figure, someone who embodies social change.

You’ll note I’m assuming, pricing in as they say, that Boris Johnson is a goner. Theoretically survival is still just about possible, and the Prime Minister will if it comes to it simply lock himself in the flat and refuse to come out. He’s desperate and determined, an immovable object colliding with a seemingly unstoppable force, Sunak.

How unstoppable is Sunak though? There are plenty of people determined to stop him or at least try. “He’ll be blocked because he’s not ready. The cost of living crisis is on him as much as Boris, more so,” says a former cabinet minister.

The growing cost of living crisis and the fear he’s about to be trashed for it along with Boris may explain the sense of urgency in Team Sunak, and the need to foster a sense this will be his very soon by acclamation. In this scenario, a rumoured deal with Jeremy Hunt and Sajid Javid (a triple ticket) is the establishment option, the move that his supporters hope makes it seem beyond question. Some veterans say such deals never hold, and within weeks amid tax rises and inflation Sunak could be less popular and one of the others might fancy their chances.

This seems to be why Sunak’s team effectively pulled the plug on the PM on Thursday, to speed up the process, when the Chancellor distanced himself from Johnson in public statements. The resignation of Munira Mirza as head of the policy unit fits here too; this move was in part a recognition of the reality the Boris era is over and a new era is starting. Some of his forces will fold in behind Sunak. The king is dead, long live the new king.

Sunak’s dilemma is the fluidity of the situation, when the cost of living emergency creates opportunities for others to blow the race wide open. Liz Truss was the front-runner before Christmas, on the basis of her popularity with Tory members. Now, defence secretary and Johnson loyalist Ben Wallace tops the ConHome membership cabinet poll, with an 80% positive rating, a rating President Putin would be proud of. Michael Gove has ruled out a run, so keep an eye out. Education Secretary Nadhim Zahawi is being urged to get ready. Tom Tugendhat, chairman of the Foreign Affairs select committee has indicated he’ll take a shot.

The case for the Sunak ascendancy rests on the circular notion this is going to happen because it is unstoppable. The longer Boris holds out and the worse the cost of living crisis gets, the more open to challenge the assumption “it has to be Sunak” becomes.

Reaction live events are back

It’s been a while. Last summer, between variants, we managed to sneak in one live event for members of Reaction when I interviewed Niall Ferguson at the Garrick Theatre. Now, we’re testing the waters with a return to more regular live gatherings. The great Justin Webb has a new memoir out – The Gift of Radio – and I’ll be interviewing him on 22 February. The Reaction team will be there and we’d love to see you. 

Tickets are available HERE, and the price includes a copy of the book and a welcome drink. It’s a pretty decent deal, and it’s great to be back.

Thanks to Maitland/AMO, who are kindly hosting the event.

Imagine no Chinese Communist Party

In a “worst songs by John Lennon” competition, Give Peace a Chance would surely give Imagine a run for its money. Although the very worst Lennon song of all may be Run For Your Life, the misogynistic rant that taints Rubber Soul, the 1965 album Beatles album that is otherwise a masterpiece.

Give Peace a Chance is entitled and naive drivel, from a songwriter who did not seem to have considered the possibility that those who led or fought in the Second World War did so not to get a sick thrill. When confronted with Nazi tyranny, in the end there were no other options other than to fight back. Equally, in the Cold War it wasn’t a question of equivalence. The West was up against totalitarians. Disarming and surrendering in that war in the late 1960s, just to please his new wife Yoko Ono, would not have been a good move.

Inevitably, for Lennon is now presented as a secular saint, rather than a highly gifted but conflicted man, the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics centred on a combination of those two terrible Lennon songs. Imagine (pure cant) was sung (as usual on these occasions) and the chief Olympics chap gave a speech in which he said the world’s politicians should “give peace a chance.”

He was watched by Presidents Xi and Putin, who had come to the opening ceremony fresh from declaring they are now firm allies against the West, seeking peace through strength, or something. The Russians should watch out though. China could at some point decide it wants a chunk of Russia, and its natural resources. It is not inconceivable Russia finds itself eventually fighting on two fronts, usually a bad idea, having started conflicts in Western Europe and then falling out with Xi or a successor.

Seeing the clips from Beijing, with the totalitarian regime that locks up the Uighars trumpeting peace, love and harmony, it was the title of that other Lennon song I mentioned that came to mind in relation to the Chinese Communist Party. Run for your life, if you can. 

What I’m watching

I recommend Final Account by the late film-maker Luke Holland. He spent a decade capturing on film the last generation alive who served the Nazis. The film was released in 2020. By turns chilling and moving, the documentary turns on the scene when a former SS officer explains to some disaffected and sceptical youths why it is important to feel ashamed. The encounter takes place at the villa in Wannsee, where the Final Solution was planned at a meeting eighty years ago, in January 1942. Final Account is available to view on @bbciplayer. 

Have a good weekend