Rout of elite tank division spells trouble for Putin’s faulty war machine

The crushing defeat of an elite Russian tank division on Saturday has contributed to a shift in momentum in the war in Ukraine, with towns and villages recaptured in recent days and Russian troops forced to retreat. 

Russia’s elite 4^th Guards tank division was renowned for its role in Stalingrad and liberating Poland from the Nazis. On Saturday, in the town of Trostyanets in north-eastern Ukraine, the division was reduced to smouldering wreckage.

Pictures and videos posted on social media showed burnt out and abandoned tanks and supply vehicles in the town of 20,000 inhabitants, 220 miles east of Kyiv. The 4^th Guards’ troops are believed to have suffered significant losses. 

Speaking anonymously to Reuters, a senior US defence official said US intelligence had confirmed that Ukrainian forces had retaken Trostyanets, which is just 15 miles from the Russian border and was captured by Russian forces on 1 March.

The rout of the 4^th Guards division and the recapture of the town is a crucial strategic as well as symbolic victory. It opens up a vital supply line to the city of Suny, 30 miles to the north which has been under siege since the war began. And it denies Russian troops an advanced foothold from which to make incursions into Ukraine’s heartland. The counter-offensive is arguably Ukraine’s most significant in the war so far.

The defeat also casts doubt on whether Russia will be able to retain all of the Ukrainian territory it has captured. Trostyanets’ proximity to the Russian border meant supply lines to Russian forces were shorter, which should have made it easier for the Kremlin to defend.

Russia has failed to capture major towns and cities, raising questions about whether it has the capacity to take Kyiv.

John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesman, said that Ukrainian forces were “in places and at times going on an offensive. They are going after Russians and pushing them out of places where the Russians have been in the past,” particularly in the southern city of Mykolaiv.

Russia is thought to have lost at least 10,000 troops – a quarter of its fighting force – with a further 30,000 to 40,000 wounded, according to western intelligence assessments.

A war crimes investigation has been opened in Trostyanets after reports of Russian soldiers killing two protesting Ukrainian civilians with grenades.

The town has been cut off from the outside world since 1 March. The extent of casualties will become clearer in the coming days, as will the ripple effects the defeat will have on Russia’s faltering campaign.