Rugby World Cup is the most open ever

Northern hopes may be high but that’s how it has usually been till we look reality in the face. In truth the question is the same as ever. Can anyone stop the All Blacks? Can they be prevented from making it three in a row? Will Steve Hansen be remembered as the most successful coach of all time or, less probably, as one who stayed for one tournament too many?

The All Blacks have shed more than half a XV since they retained the Cup in England four years ago. Absentees include Richie McCaw, Dan Carter, Conrad Smith, Ma’a Nonu, Tony Woodcock, Owen Franks, Julian Savea and Jerome Kaino, while others approaching their twilight years, Sonny Bill Williams and Ben Smith, find themselves only on the bench for the opening match against South Africa this weekend. Nevertheless, such is their record, such their aura, that they start as favourites. And why not? They haven’t lost a World Cup match since France beat them in Cardiff in 2007 when Dan Carter was missing. In a frenetic last few minutes spent mostly in the French 22, New Zealand forgot that a drop goal would have been enough to win them the game.

They have lost a handful of matches since McCaw lifted the Cup for a second time as captain at Twickenham four years ago. Australia beat them in this summer’s Rugby Championship, though the All Blacks obliterated them in the return match. More to the immediate point, South Africa held them to a draw in Auckland. There may be just a touch of apprehension in the New Zealand camp. When South Africa’s coach Rassie Erasmus remarked that Test Rugby is now so competitive that the days of marginal decisions going in favour of New Zealand as the best team in the world should now be over, Hansen accused him of trying to put pressure on the referee, Jerome Garces. Fair enough, you may say, but few can deny that the All Blacks haven’t benefitted in the past from referees’ marginal decision-making, not least in their 8-7 defeat of France in the 2011 Final when Craig Joubert denied the French at least two very kickable penalties in the last ten minutes. To which New Zealanders might reply that Wayne Barnes ignored a clear forward pass in a brilliant French try in that 2007 match in Cardiff.

Since many reckon that New Zealand and South Africa are the two best teams in the Cup, it may seem absurd that they should meet in a pool match this first weekend. They are doing so because, doubtless for good logistical and administrative reasons, pool placings are decided a couple of years before the tournament, and this was done when South Africa were on a poor run and ranked only sixth in the world. They have improved hugely since Erasmus took over as coach. As it happens, being in the same pool means that the two favourites can’t meet again till the final. You can lose a pool match and still win the Cup. Nevertheless, Saturday’s game will give one or other some moral ascendancy should both survive to contest the final. It promises to be a mighty battle.

England are in my book third favourites and Saturday’s New Zealand-South Africa match is of special interest to them since it may determine which of the two England may meet in the semi-final. This is looking quite far ahead, and England, who don’t play their first game – against Tonga – till Sunday, will be more immediately interested in the outcome of Saturday’s match between France and Argentina, both in their pool. They are likely to be tough opponents for England. But they should beat them both if they are as good as Eddie Jones says they are.

France have sprung a surprise – when don’t they? – by preferring young Romain Ntamack at fly-half to the more experienced Camille Lopez. Ntamack and Antoine Dupont will be the youngest half-back pairing in the Cup, and their selection will doubtless provoke some shaking of heads and mutterings of “there’s no substitute for experience” – except, one may respond, the ardour of fearless youth, sometimes anyway.

Wales don’t play till Monday when they should have no great difficulty in beating Georgia, but they will be keeping a close eye on Saturday’s Australia-Fiji game. We all know how good Australia can be, but Fiji may prove the surprise package this year. It’s recognized that the Fijians are the finest natural players in the world, but they have rarely been able to field a team that fairly represented the sum of their individual abilities. This time it may be different. They not only have some wonderful players with years of experience of the top level of European rugby, but they have been together long enough this summer to have learned to marry cohesion to their individual brilliance. Given their ability to conjure up tries from anywhere on the field and Wales’s apparent inability to score more than two or three tries in a match, the Welsh should be as wary of the Fijians as they are of Australia.

Ireland and Scotland meet on Sunday in a match both might have preferred to play after one or two supposedly easier pool games. Ireland have won the last two matches between them. In both Scotland had chances which they didn’t take, and in both, Ireland managed to exert pressure and force Scotland to play for long periods without the ball. Neither country has a great World Cup record. Scotland haven’t gone as far as the semi-final since 1991; Ireland have never gone that far, even though Ireland have been better than Scotland for a long time now. Scotland in the World Cup have never lost a match they were expected to win or won a match they were expected to lose – a strange record.

Some suspect that Ireland may not be quite as good as they were a year or eighteen months ago. Much may depend on the two fly-halves. Johnny Sexton has been a great player for Leinster, Ireland and the Lions. Scotland’s Finn Russell has more than a touch of genius and his judgment seems to have improved since he moved to play for Racing 92 in Paris. He’s the kind of player you either adore or distrust – I’m in the adore camp. I would say this game is too close to call, but I doubt if many Irish supporters would agree with that judgement. Nor would a fair number of my Scottish compatriots who belong to the glass-half-empty school. Sadly over the years these moaning Jeremiahs have been proved right more often than wrong. Maybe not this time though.

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