Rugby World Cup: what to expect in the semi-finals

It’s grim up north. Four went in but only one came out. A 75 per cent casualty rate for the Northern Hemisphere in the Rugby World Cup quarter-finals.

Worse, littering the field are the lost dreams of the top two rated sides in the world. Ireland and hosts France.

One must be fair, waiting for them were New Zealand and South Africa, each three-time winners. They know what it takes and it was always going to be nip and tuck.

Both matches were epics. Ireland eschewed the posts for the corner. Points went begging. In the final knockings, they hurled themselves at the All Black line. Thirty-seven phases of possession. No try. A tribute to Kiwi resilience or the failing legs of a 38-year-old Ireland fly-half unable to unlock the door? Who might guess but, come the whistle, Irish eyes weren’t smiling.

France and the Boks handed us one of the great halves of test rugby. Akin to the classic fights of boxing’s golden age; Sugar Ray and Hitman Hearns or the Thriller in Manila. Class opponents, unceasing action, ebb and flow and an outcome ever uncertain.

In the end, as it often does, Bok power triumphed. Mighty lock Eben Etzebeth set off for the line like a beast of the plains, the young lions of France clinging to his haunches. No use. Try Springboks.

And then there’s the scrum. The superpower of South Africa. They called one on a mark in their own 22. Come and have a go if you think you’re hard enough. France wasn’t. By the end of a titanic contest, the bulls of the veldt were finally in charge. No scrum, no win.

Dommage. The romantic hope was gone. France complained about the ref. Who doesn’t these days? Marginal calls. The whistle is a cruel and fickle mistress. As NZ in their pomp used to say: “Take it out of the official’s hands.”

Elsewhere, Wales, who have probably overachieved against the backdrop of their run-in, fell to Argentina, a failed dive for the corner flag and an interception. They’ll be disappointed though. They coulda, shoulda, didn’t. The loser’s lament.

And then there was one. Of all sides, England. Helped by the draw they arrive in the semis having won a bruising encounter against Fiji who, Bazball-like, tried to chase a score and failed.

Coach Steve Borthwick claimed: “We’ve proved a few people wrong.” Quite how is unclear. But one mustn’t be churlish, a tough match won and now South Africa in the final four. Win that and he really will have proven something. Which is probably for the best. Each team must find its motivation and the defiance aimed at fans and foes alike is a well on which they are plainly drawing, however tedious it may be to the outside world. Playing the misunderstood genius is grating, especially when the criticism has been more than valid.

What then are the chances for Borthwick’s besieged?

They’ll take confidence from a lengthy spell of dominance over a Fiji side short neither in physicality, ability or fitness. One way or another, they’ve arrived in the semi-finals where, as cliché has it, anything might happen. And there were certainly signs of improvement. Finally given clarity over his role at fly-half, Owen Farrell paired up with a useful midfield to turn in a decent if overdue performance including a drop goal, a weapon reintroduced to England’s armoury. It has an illustrious World Cup history. Rob Andrew used it to see off Australia in 1995, while Joel Stransky used it to win the pot for the Boks that same year. His successor Jannie De Beer kicked England out with it in 1999, a lesson Sir Clive Woodward learned well enough to mention it to up-and-comer Johnny Wilkinson four years later. Watch for it again.  

Meanwhile, Danny Care added zip and vim in attack and defence while Courtney Lawes and Ben Earl were outstanding up front.

Other things will worry them though. They faded badly in the last twenty and almost opened a door they’d shut on the Fiji charge. Tom Curry continues to interest refs more than the oppo and while it’s a flanker’s lot to live on the edge, his sending off against Argentina should serve as a reminder. England would not hold out against the South Africans a man down. Ben Earl, full of pace and courage, doesn’t have the physical stature of a test 8 while SA has it in spades. He’ll need his scrum to give him the soundest platform and this is a test England have failed against the Springboks since they were dismantled four years ago in Yokohama’s World Cup final.

As ever, with South Africa it’s about power and, while once, England numbered among the few nations able to go toe-to-toe with the huge men of the Cape, they are not in that league currently. Everything stems from that. Drop goals, coherent attack, all things good. Forwards win matches, backs decide by how much, as the ancient wisdom has it.  In that regard, they will welcome the physical presence of Freddie Steward at full-back for the smashed, bashed and magical Marcus Smith. Secure under the high ball, an option for the kick pass, the 6’ 5” Steward offers much, except perhaps a Smith conjuring trick to save a game. 

Elsewhere, one must look at the calibre of coach, South Africa’s Rassie Erasmus may be an idiot savant, what with his off-field antics and bans, but the savant is strong indeed and his record long and impressive. Borthwick – thus far – can’t match him. An experience mismatch that extends to the field.

Meanwhile, the All Blacks, curiously forgotten as a contender after recent years in which they have fallen well short of their historically high standards, face up to Los Pumas, a side once renowned for loving a scrum loaded with Argentinian prime beef but nothing else. All things must change and the South Americans have beaten the mighty Blacks both home and away in recent times.

Kiwi captain Sam Cane was, along with his back row colleague Ardie Savea, simply outstanding against Ireland in an area of traditional New Zealand excellence whilst the back line remains a frightener. Proving that Argentina is, these days, more than a bull on the charge are Santi Carreras at 10, full of speed and judgement, and Emiliano Buffelli on the wing who, when not scorching the touchline, can kick ’em from anywhere.  Ask Wales.

So, make your mind up time. My pre-match bet went down on the men in bottle green. They are rugby made by the laws of physics. Momentum = mass x velocity and they have both. They’ve come through three toughies against Scotland, Ireland and France and that will leave them battle-hardened, if one hopes, a little tired. I’d love to lose my money but don’t think I will. South Africa go through.

Meanwhile, a foolish man discounts the All Blacks as many an Ireland fan will attest. They are not what they were but the force may, increasingly, be with them. To see Argentina in the final would be good for the game but do they have enough?

Never predict, especially about the future. The joy of sport is the uncertainty of outcome. But it’s Gog and Magog. The two perennial giants hurling rocks come final time. New Zealand v South Africa. Rather irritatingly, it’s another universal law of physics.

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