Russia advancing in eastern Ukraine

As Russian troops advance into eastern Ukraine for a third week straight, thousands of Ukrainians face a fast-approaching front line and the looming prospect of occupation.

After months of stalemate and the failure of Kyiv’s summer counteroffensive, Moscow’s forces are gaining ground in the Donetsk region of Ukraine. 

In mid-February, Russian troops captured the strategic town of Avdiivka. Since then, they have advanced further into eastern Ukraine and seized several villages. 

Over 1.2 million Ukrainians previously living in the Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk region have fled since Russia launched its full-scale invasion over two years ago. Meaning roughly one third of the region’s population remains there. A small minority of those who stayed put are labelled “Zhdun”- or “waiters” – by the bulk of Ukrainians, an insulting term for those who are pro-Russian and eagerly awaiting occupation. Others chose to stay there because they refused to abandon their homes. They have since got used to living in constant danger, with a round-the-clock hum of artillery fire in the distance. 

The fall of the eastern town of Avdiivka was Moscow’s most significant victory – and the biggest overall change along the 700-mile-long frontline – since the fall of Bakhmut, another city in the Donetsk region which Russian forces captured back in May.

Oleksandr Syrski, Ukraine’s newly installed top army chief, said he withdrew troops from Avdiivka “in order to preserve life and encirclement.” The decision came after he was criticised for holding onto Bakhmut for too long, at the expense of far too many Ukrainian casualties. 

While Russian troops suffered heavy losses in Avdiivka, their four months of relentless attacks left Ukrainian defenders in the town outnumbered by as many as seven to one. 

The fall of Avdiivka reflects the wider, unmistakable reality that, as Russia’s full-scale assault on Ukraine enters its third year, a war of attrition favours Moscow.

Or, as Tim Marshall put it in Reaction last week, “In a war of attrition, which is what this has become, the side with the greater manpower, firepower, supply chain, and resolve is the likely victor.”

Russia’s population of 144 million is more than three times larger than that of Ukraine’s. The longer fighting goes on, the more consequential this difference in population size becomes. 

Ukraine’s dwindling ammunition supplies perpetuates the problem. Last summer, Ukraine was firing between 5,000 and 8,000 missiles a day. That has dropped to between 1,000 and 3,000, meaning Moscow now has a five-to-one advantage in missiles fired.

South of the Donetsk region, Russia has made small advances in villages within the Zaporizhzhia region. And deadly explosions have continued to rock Odesa, the latest coming only yesterday when President Volodymyr Zelensky was hosting his Greek counterpart Kyriakos Mitsotakis in the southern port city. 

While Ukraine has made no recent advances across the frontline, it has had some recent success at sea. Earlier this week, it reportedly sunk the amphibious Russian ship, the Caesar Kunikov, off the coast of Crimea. Kyiv is now estimated to have sunk or disabled between one-third to half of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

Yet Kyiv’s victories at sea don’t significantly shift the wider war picture: Moscow is gaining the upper hand.

Zelensky has not hesitated to blame the fall of Avdiivka on the dwindling supply of western weapons. 

Ukrainians will hope that Russia’s advance in the east jogs western allies into action. Though some will fear it could have the opposite effect: despite the fierce defence Ukrainians have put up over the past two years, it could be upheld as evidence that this was never truly a war Kyiv could win. Meaning Ukraine could face heightened pressure to sue for peace on unfavourable terms. 

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