Russia is racing India to be first country on the Moon’s South Pole – and looks set to win

Tri. Dva. Odin. Vzletay! as the Russian’s don’t say because the Russians don’t do space rocket countdowns. This is a shame because that would have heightened the drama of this weekend’s launch of Luna-25 from Vostochny Cosmodrome – Russia’s first Moon shot in almost half a century.

Its one year mission: to perfect lunar soft landings, to explore for resources, and to research the Moon’s internal structure.  Oh, and to boldly beat the Indians and become the first country to land at the Moon’s south pole, the region destined to be an area of competition between the great powers.

India (which does do space rocket countdowns) launched its Chandrayaan-3 rocket on July 14 and expected it would achieve an impressive world first with its Vikram lander touching down at 5.47pm Indian Standard Time on Aug 23.  But wait! The Russian space agency Roscosmos says Luna-25 will take five days to fly to the Moon and then spend five to seven days in lunar orbit before landing at one of three possible sites. That means it may arrive up to two days before Chandrayaan-3.

They’ve tried this before – and why not?  In July 1969, knowing they couldn’t get a crewed craft to the Moon’s surface before Apollo 11 arrived, they sent up the unmanned Lunar 15. It was designed to land, scoop up some rocks, and then race back home thus becoming the first nation to bring back samples. It was orbiting the Moon at the same time as Apollo 11, but as Neil Armstrong was taking his first ‘small step’ Lunar 15 was still trying to find a safe landing site. It then crashed into a mountain in the Sea of Crisis about 500 miles from the Americans who had landed in the Sea of Tranquillity.

If the Russians do pull off being first to the South Pole, they get bragging rights to add to first satellite (Sputnik), first dog (Laika) first man (Yuri Gagarin) and first woman (Valentina Tereshkova).  Moscow also gets to show Beijing that Russia remains a serious space power at a time when President Putin is looking to strengthen cooperation in space with China. 

Compared with the Soviet era, Russia’s space programme lacks both innovation and funding and has been plagued by a series of corruption scandals. The Kremlin prefers to focus on the military aspects of space and Roscosmos suffers from being cut off from cooperation with Western counterparts. For example, Roscosmos and the European Space Agency (ESA) had agreed that an ESA test guidance camera would be on board Luna-25 but ties were severed after the invasion of Ukraine at great cost to the European’s ExoMars project.

Both the Russian and Indian missions are about a lot more than just being first to the South Pole. The region is the target for many countries including all 27 signatories to the US-led Artemis Accords. The Americans intend to have a man and a woman walking on the lunar South Pole by 2026, and a base there in the early 2030s. The Chinese and Russian want a joint base there by (an ambitious) 2028.

Most Moon missions have landed on its equator, but in recent years the proof of the existence of large amounts of water at the South Pole has focussed attention there. If it is extractable, it makes the proposition of mining the Moon for resources such as titanium, uranium, and iron, and for building lunar bases more viable. As on Earth, the resources are finite so it will be first come first served.

The four legged, 800kg Luna-25 has a scoop onboard which can take dig out rock samples up to 6 inches deep into the surface and will be using this to determine the best areas in which to find water and to mine. Chandrayaan-3 is also equipped with scientific equipment, but its lander module is only expected to conduct experiments for a lunar day – about 14 Earth days.

It’s not easy thing to achieve a soft landing at the South Pole. Indeed, it is rocket science. The Indians are taking a patient approach. This week they conducted an orbit reduction manoeuvre to get closer to the surface, and on Monday will perform another. By that time Luna-25 should be halfway there, and closing in.

The launch site is about 3,450 miles east of Moscow in the Khabarovsk region. Residents of the village of Shakhtinsk (pop 27) located about 185 miles from Votochny were told to leave their homes because of a ‘one in a million chance’ that one of the rocket stages could fall on them. On the plus side they were taken to watch the launch and provided with a free breakfast. Sadly, they did not hear a verbal countdown because in the 1950s the Russian space hierarchy regarded them as an American affectation and still do.

They are partially correct. The countdown was brought to America by the German rocket scientist, Wernher von Braun, who was captured at the end of WWII. He was a fan of a Fritz Lang silent film called ‘Women in the Moon’ which included a countdown to launch to heighten dramatic tension. Von Braun realised it would have a similar effect in real life in the US.

Now we have another countdown. First to the lunar South Pole. The race is on.

Tim Marshall is the author of The Future of Geography, a book about astropolitics.

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