Russians head to polls to re-elect Putin

This is Tim Marshall’s weekly column on geopolitics for Reaction. Subscribe to Reaction here.

“If not Putin, then who?”. Behind this popular slogan, voiced by supporters of the Russian leader ahead of this weekend’s election, lies the truth that even if you discounted the votes he will steal, Putin would probably still win a fifth term as President.

Most of the Russian media has been successfully turned into pro-Putin mouthpieces. Meaningful opposition candidates are either barred from standing, in exile, in prison, or dead. A genuine contest might throw up someone around whom dissatisfied voters would coalesce, make significant inroads into Putin’s vote share, and thus undermine the idea that the current President is the only option. The other three candidates on the ballot papers were allowed to stand as tame pretend opponents to give the semblance of a democratic vote.

They are polling at five per cent or lower whereas Putin looks like winning at least 75 per cent of votes cast. It helps that the votes will be counted by an election committee which is ultra-loyal to the Kremlin. One of its former heads, Vladimir Churov, said his prime directive when in charge was: “Putin is always right.”

So, why spend north of one billion dollars on what Kremlin documents (leaked to Estonian website Delfi) call an “information war” designed to heighten nationalism and push the regime’s agenda? The rationale seems to be to get as big a turnout, and as many pro-Putin votes as possible in order to enhance the idea that the whole country is rallying around him and that only he is capable of leading the country through these difficult times. This may give the Kremlin some political space later this spring if it takes what would be an unpopular decision and orders a second round of military conscription to bolster the fight in Ukraine.

The money has been doled out to compliant media companies to create”infotainment” promoting traditional family values and national unity. TV, radio, and the internet have been pumping out positive messages about life in Putin’s Russia and the threat of western countries to both Russia’s security and its moral and spiritual wellbeing.

A good example is the ranting of TV talk show host Vladimir Solovyov although perhaps “host” is the wrong word as he tends to host his own views at length and volume, and shout down any guests with dissenting views. According to the “Kremlin Leaks” published by Delfi, Solovyov received over $15 million dollars from the state budget last year. He has also received a “Merit of the Fatherland” medal from Putin. Solovyov’s views include a call for the Russian army to advance as far as Paris, and to nuke London.

Anyone displaying public signs of dissent against the Kremlin’s idea of what Russia should be risks arrest and, increasingly,  prison sentences. However, on Sunday (voting is over three days), there may a chance for small displays of defiance. Shortly before his death in the gulag last month, opposition leader Alexei Navalny called for a “Noon against Putin” vote.

The idea is that flash mobs of anti-Putin voters should appear at the polling stations at noon to vote. Navalny argued that the gesture would be legal and relatively safe: “What can they do?” he asked, “Will they close the polling stations at 12 noon….will they register everyone who came at noon and put them on a list?”  If it happens, it is unlikely to make much of a difference, and it will not be covered by Russian news outlets.

For millions of Russians, Putin is the leader who has brought them stability and renewed pride in the country. The national collective memory harks back to the chaos after the Russian Revolution, the sacrifices of the Second World War (The Great Patriotic War), and the economic meltdown and humiliation of the 1990s after the collapse of the USSR. He may not have been responsible for the economic recovery, but he presided over it.

Come Monday – Putin will still be President. In fact, come 2036 he might still be in the top job. When he first came to power, on the last day of 1999, the Russian constitution stated the President could serve two four-year terms. After eight years in power, Putin stood down, became Prime Minister, and for four years everyone pretended that Dmitry Medvedev was President. During this period Putin argued that as his terms in office were consecutive, he was free to stand for a third term. He duly took office again in 2012 by which time Medvedev had helpfully signed a law extending the term to six years. In 2020, with time running out, the constitution was changed again to make an exception for Putin, resetting his tally to zero and allowing him two more terms if he won re-election.

By this time there was no “if”, only  – when.

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