Sanctions will strengthen Putin in medium-term, top legal expert says

A top legal expert has said that Western sanctions are irrelevant in stopping Russia’s war on Ukraine and will strengthen Vladimir Putin’s regime in the medium-term.

Dr Martin Navias, senior visiting research fellow at King’s College London, told an audience at The Defence of Europe conference at KCL, co-hosted with Reaction, that it’s only in the long-term that economic penalties might have an impact: “In the short-term, sanctions will have no effect on Putin’s decisions on the battlefield. In the medium-term, they’ll strengthen Putin.”

Dr Navias cited Iran and North Korea, where, he said, years of ineffective economic sanctions have helped to cement domestic opposition to the countries imposing them. “These countries just feel defeated and resentful – it hasn’t worked.”

A prerequisite for getting the most out of Russian sanctions, says Navias, is deciding what we want them to achieve – and articulating it clearly to Moscow. “Are we trying to punish the Russian people, to affect regime change? Affect things on the battlefield? Iranians know what they have to do, North Korea too. But Russia doesn’t know what it’s got to do. We need a realistic expectation of what sanctions can do. We’ve been applying them to Cuba, Iran, and North Korea for years – and how’s that going?”

By contrast, Baroness Neville-Jones, a former chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee, was sanguine about the efficacy of sanctions. “If we didn’t have any sanctions, we’d be supporting the other side of the war even more,” she said, referring to continued oil and gas purchases from Russia. “This war combined with economic penalties will have severe economic consequences on Russia and its ability to wage war – it will effect permanent change. Sanctions are not without real impact on fighting capabilities.”

Dr Navias said that only in the long-run should we hold out any hope of sanctions having an effect: “[Western powers imposing sanctions] will force down consumption, GDP, and investment in Russia. There’ll be an effect on [Putin’s] economy and his ability to supply his weapons systems. But in the short and medium-term, it’s the impact on Western economies that will be significant.”