Scottish independence would make Brexit look like a cakewalk
Andrew Neil was on fine form last night as he grilled Nicola Sturgeon on her lamentable domestic record. It’s about time the First Minister was put under sustained pressure to answer for her government’s record rather than being allowed to divert back to Scottish independence as if she led a single-issue party. Even on her favourite subject she has significant political vulnerabilities and she floundered when Neil pressed her on them.
When it comes to which currency Scotland will use and EU membership, there are so many unanswered and unanswerable questions. The BBC’s Neil pressed Sturgeon on what currency an independent Scotland would use – she replied the pound but without a monetary union, although she said that the rest of the UK might agree one. That’s going to be one very weak and unstable situation. She even said that this would be the case even if Brexit had been implemented. So according to the First Minister, Scotland would apply to join the EU while using a third country’s currency without a monetary union. This would not be acceptable to the EU.
Brexit has provided fresh impetus to the nationalist drive for independence, but it also brings with it a whole host of problems. The SNP has committed to leaving the UK and applying for EU membership. Is the SNP willing to join the Euro? Accept the Common Fisheries Policy? Join Schengen? These are all pre-conditions for new members. Even more complicated is the inevitable divergence from the UK and the damage that will do to the Scottish economy.
So many familiar questions will arise. If Scotland leaves the UK single market and customs union there will be significant trade barriers with its most important trade partner. Is this a price the SNP is willing to pay? How will they manage the inevitable economic damage caused by tariffs, technical barriers to trade and customs checks? This will also mean a hard border between England and Scotland, how will the SNP deal with this? There was nothing in the interview last night that suggested the SNP have credible answers to these dilemmas.
Whether you’re a supporter of Brexit or not, there is no denying the process has proven problematic in many expected and unexpected ways. Seceding from a 46-year-old economic and political union is proving extremely complex and far more difficult than many Leave supporters had believed. You may have noticed Nicola Sturgeon often pointing this out with great enthusiasm and talking up what a disaster it will be and what a reckless policy it is. She is on very shaky ground. If leaving the relatively new European political and economic union is difficult, imagine trying to leave a 300-year-old Union.
If the SNP ever gets its way, Scotland leaving the UK will make Brexit look like a cakewalk in every conceivable sense. The toxicity of the 2014 Scottish referendum debate is nothing compared to how divisive, hostile and miserable the atmosphere in this country will be as it literally tears itself apart. It will be utterly traumatic. Brexit will pale in comparison.
The SNP is even more presumptuous and deluded than the hardest Brexiteers in thinking it will be simple or easy. Scotland will be divided as nationalists and Unionists turn against each other. Scotland’s relationship with the rest of the UK will be soured. The hardline nationalists will attempt to dominate the debate and the political direction of travel, potentially leading to sensible advocates of independence being drowned out as the debate becomes polarised. The nationalists will have to deal with an impassioned Unionist “remain” movement calling for another referendum, with Sturgeon’s support of a second Brexit referendum coming back to haunt her.
Think back to all the issues that the UK has been confronted with in negotiations for the EU Withdrawal Agreement. Then look forward to all the issues that face us in negotiating a future relationship. Expect much the same for Scotland as it faces off with the rest of the UK as it moves to protect its interests and use every advantage to gain the upper hand in negotiations.
Scotland would then face accession negotiations with the EU and all the conditions that it comes with it, including dealing with their budget deficit. Scotland will face the reality of having to transfer a vast swathe of powers to Brussels and becoming a relatively small state within a larger Union. Sturgeon and the SNP call the EU a “community of equals”, but this isn’t how it works in reality. In reality, “independence in Europe” is a myth, the SNP don’t want true independence. The SNP is a separatist movement and what they want is separation from England, that’s the real goal.
Nicola Sturgeon has always considered Brexit a major advantage to the nationalist movement, but it could be a fatal to her dreams of independence. Last night’s BBC interview offered just a hint of the problems that await her and showed that the SNP has yet to come up with a strong economic case for independence after Brexit and a convincing way of overcoming the political barriers in front of them.