Second Trump assassination attempt bodes ill for Ukraine

With the US election only seven weeks away tomorrow, and the war in Ukraine on a knife edge, the last thing the government in Kyiv needed was a problem like this. By now the details of the case are widely known. Donald Trump emerged safe after secret service agents shot at and chased off a gunman who was found lurking on the edge of Trump’s International Golf Club in West Palm Beach Florida Sunday afternoon.

The gunman, now identified as 58-year-old Ryan Routh, was apprehended shortly afterwards by the local sheriff’s department. The apparent attempt didn’t threaten Trump nearly to the degree the last attempt did, as the suspect was never closer than 300-500 yards from the former President. Nevertheless, the incident has deeply unsettled the American public once again and has elicited strong reactions from all sides.

Media outlets have rapidly unearthed a staggering amount of information from the shooter’s extensive online history in the last day. One central theme emerges, the suspect’s overwhelming obsession with Ukraine and its defence. 

Routh is reported to have travelled from his home in Hawaii to Kyiv to “rally support” for the cause which he characterised as “good versus evil”. Reports say that after being denied entry into Ukraine’s international legion, Routh set his sights on enlisting other foreigners for the fight, even setting up his own makeshift memorial in Kyiv’s Independence Square to recruit others from. Aid workers who were familiar with him told the BBC that Routh had an “unhealthy level” of focus on Ukraine, but didn’t appear to be crazy. 

Routh also concocted an effort online to transport thousands of anti-Taliban Afghans willing to Ukraine to fight against Russia’s invasion. The scheme gained enough publicity to warrant an interview of Routh from a New York Times reporter in 2023. However, in the article his name appeared alongside other Americans who were misguided, in over their heads, and causing more harm than good. It’s doubtful his Afghan effort amounted to anything. 

It appears Routh became disenchanted as he published a book online titled “Ukraine’s unwinnable war”. In the rambling, 291 page opinion piece, Routh calls Trump a “fool” and urges Iran to assassinate the former President. It’s unlikely that Trump’s recent debate-stage Ukraine pessimism, in which he refused to say he wanted their victory, did much to change Routh’s mind on the matter. 

Zelensky was quick to denounce the attempted attack and wish his best to Donald Trump, apparently concerned by the optics of a pro-Ukraine assassin. He was joined by Ukraine’s international legion and Azov battalion, who labelled Routh as an unwelcome and unstable vagrant. 

The event is likely to accelerate the American right’s slide towards the NATO-sceptic and anti-Ukraine side of its party. Earlier this month, numerous high profile right-wing influencers were named in justice department indictment for taking millions in Kremlin cash to promote anti-Ukraine narratives. Some of the same voices hammered home the Ukraine-Democrat connection to the assassination attempt today. 

VP hopeful JD Vance also scrutinised Ukraine in recent weeks, and many are concerned with his vision for a “peace plan” which appears to provide Putin with exactly what he wishes, freezing the conflict along the current frontlines and forcing Ukraine into a never-NATO pledge. 

The aspiring assassin’s links to Ukraine, despite the seemingly one-sided nature of the relationship, deepens the fissure between the Republicans and the embattled nation. While unlikely to tilt the election in either direction, the jarring incident certainly could prove consequential for Ukraine if Trump emerges victorious in November.

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