Should Ukraine strike a peace deal?

As the war in Ukraine drags on into its fourth month, there is still no end in sight.

Russian forces launched a major offensive today around Sievierodonetsk in Eastern Ukraine, in an effort to encircle Ukrainian troops. The area surrounding the city is the most easterly point of Ukrainian-held territory in the Donbas. Sievierodonetsk has come under intense artillery and missile fire in recent weeks. Capturing it would be a big prize for Russia in its push to seize control of the Donbas.

The success of Russia’s campaign in the East could prove decisive to how the war concludes. But it’s an open question whether Western leaders want to bring the fighting to an end.

Hawks understandably see Ukraine as a golden opportunity to punish Putin and weaken Russia. In Western capitals, the dominant thinking is that Ukrainians should be encouraged to fight on – and win.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told the World Economic Forum in Davos yesterday that Ukraine must win the war against Russia so that the invasion is a strategic failure for the Russian President. 

She echoed US defence secretary Lloyd Austin, who has said that Russia must be left so crippled militarily that it cannot pose a threat to the Baltic states or Moldova.

Liz Truss, the UK’s foreign secretary, has said that a peace deal would only be possible if Russia pulls out or is forced out from the whole of Ukraine, including the Donbas and Crimea.

There’s an opposing, more pragmatic school of thought that believes talking up chances of a Ukrainian “victory” is irresponsible.

Among them is arch-realist and foreign policy doyen Henry Kissinger. The 98-year-old was also in Davos yesterday, and told delegates that Russia’s pivotal role in the European balance of power meant inflicting a crushing defeat would be disastrous for long-term stability on the continent.

Ukraine, he said, must be prepared to give up territory in a peace deal: “Ideally, the dividing line should be a return to the status quo ante. Pursuing the war beyond that point would not be about the freedom of Ukraine, but a new war against Russia itself.”

Kissinger’s conception of Ukraine as a natural geopolitical buffer zone leaves no room for what Ukrainians want for their country. And after the mass barbarism of Putin’s campaign, the idea of Ukraine being carved up is grotesque.

Yet the cold fact remains that despite Russia’s military embarrassments, Ukraine is still the underdog, and a protracted war to force back Russian troops will be paid for with more Ukrainian blood.

On Sunday, a day after Zelensky said the war could only be brought to an end through diplomacy, his government ruled out giving up territory in any ceasefire deal. 

The apparent hardening of Kyiv’s position may have simply been aimed at boosting morale – it’s hard to talk about a peace deal without sounding defeatist.

But if it reflects genuine thinking in Kyiv, the success of Russia’s offensive in Sievierodonetsk will determine how long it can hold.