Sinn Fein win is a warning shot for the Tories on housing

The Irish general election is a historic result for Sinn Féin. The party’s leader, Mary Lou McDonald, described the outcome as “something of a revolution in the ballot box”.

Over here in Britain, where we have just unequivocally rejected a hard-left populist with links to the IRA, this has come as something of a shock. Remainers in the UK have been keen to portray the Republic of Ireland as a beacon of European progressivism, but here they are voting for a party historically associated with a terrorist group.

The most recent MRBI exit poll, found that Sinn Féin’s support polled highest among 18-34-year-olds. This was a cry of frustration. Surely one of the biggest motivators of this generation was the sense that they are locked out of the housing market. Getting a mortgage seems out of reach and there is a long waiting list for social housing.

Plentiful, affordable housing is the bedrock of economic security and to own one’s home is something most people aspire to. Not long ago, Ireland had one of the world’s highest rates of homeownership. Over the last several years the housing crisis has got worse. Homeownership has dropped, evictions and homelessness are on the rise and demand for rental units has led to a shortage. A housing shortage and soaring rents are part of the public conversation and have been at the heart of Sinn Féin’s campaign.

Sinn Féin pledged to deliver the largest programme of public housing building in the history of the State if it enters government along with a three-year rent freeze. Mary Lou McDonald was able to exploit the issue and blame both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil for their “failed” housing policies.

There is a lesson here for the Conservative Party, so I do hope Boris and co are paying attention. The bleak prospects of home ownership in Ireland have driven them towards the hard left. Now that Brexit will no longer warp election results over here, the Conservatives are extremely vulnerable on this issue. If they fail to tackle the housing crisis the electorate will turn against them and it will be an avoidable, unforced error.

The Conservatives have traditionally been hugely successful in claiming to be the party of home ownership and aspiration. The problem is clear. No one will vote for the party of aspiration and home ownership if their aspirations are being frustrated because they cannot see a way for them to acquire a property of their own.

The time in which rising house prices were an electoral asset for the Tories is well and truly over. Young people stuck in rented accommodation, unable to afford a home, will begin to listen to the left when they offer rent caps, landlord bashing, minimum tenancies, property expropriation and mass building programmes. It will be no good just saying these policies are mad or won’t work. Voters will simply reject current circumstances in favour of change. Whatever form it takes.

Solutions introduced by the Conservatives so far have been inadequate. George Osborne’s Help to Buy scheme enabled some people (including me) to get on the housing ladder, but it helped to inflate house prices further and did little to nothing to address the housing crisis. Subsidising demand without increasing supply is not a solution.

The “First Homes” scheme recently announced is more of the same. The Conservatives need to stop fiddling around with the housing market and get far more radical by liberalising planning laws to get Britain building again. The supply of housing in the UK is hindered by constraints in the planning system on where you can build and what you can build and desperately needs to be reviewed.

This could mean building on parts of the green belt, which often inspires an emotional response from people who think that every bit of the green belt is a spot of natural beauty. This isn’t the case. If done carefully, a limited relaxation of the rules to allow the construction of new homes close to existing infrastructure in some in green belt areas would help alleviate the crisis.

The government must also look at ways of densifying our towns and cities and ensure that terraced homes are prioritised over ghastly tower blocks. It should look at the recommendations of London YIMBY and Create Streets to gain the support of communities for densification, estate regeneration and building the type of housing that is popular with people rather than ideological architects.

The bold policy recommendations of the Building Better, Building Beautiful Commission are designed to encourage the building of homes that people like and in areas where they would prefer to live. They would be a real game changer if implemented. It offers radical ways to resolve the perversions of the tax code and legal framework exacerbating the housing crisis. This is not time to be timid, the rigid planning system needs a shakeup.

The housing crisis contributes to lower productivity, weaker growth and people not feeling the benefits of economic growth. People who feel they will never own their own home feel like they have less of a stake in society. Without capital, support for capitalism wanes. This all strengthens the far left and leads to fewer people voting Conservative. It also means people delay having families which again leads to fewer Conservative voters.

The Conservative Party has an uncanny instinct for self-preservation so they can look at this in two ways. Solving the housing crisis is a good in and of itself. It will benefit millions of people, grow the economy, improve productivity and contribute to de-toxifying and de-polarising politics.

The other way to look at is as an existential crisis. Fail to solve the housing and the Conservative Party will find itself unpopular and out of office. A left-wing opposition will surf into Downing Street on a wave of frustration, riding a surfboard of socialist promises.