Labour hold in Dumbarton jeopardises SNP hopes of a majority

Labour’s Jackie Baillie has held onto her key Dumbarton seat in the Scottish parliament after a strong challenge from the SNP. Election guru Professor John Curtice said on Friday evening that it made it difficult for the SNP to win an overall majority.

The deputy leader of Scottish Labour, who has held the seat since the Scottish Parliament’s inception in 1999, defeated the SNP’s Toni Giugliano, increasing her share of the vote in the process.

In this seat, Unionist tactical voting worked. Baillie secured 17,825 votes – increasing her majority from 109 to 1,483. The SNP was on 16,342 with the Tories down, scraping 3,205 votes.

The result deals a blow to SNP hopes of achieving a majority after all the Scottish Parliamentary election votes are counted. Earlier today, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon warned the race was on a “knife-edge”.

Even so, pro-Union parties have struggled to make the gains they had hoped for, with non-SNP voters divided between the two major parties.

In Banff and Buchan, one of the country’s most eurosceptic constituencies, the Scottish Conservatives enjoyed an 11 point swing – though this wasn’t enough to pip the SNP which held on by only 772 votes.

And in a defeat for new Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar, he increased his party’s vote share by 8 per cent in Glasgow Southside but failed to oust the SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon who took more than 60% of the vote.

The loss of East Lothian was a further blow to Scottish Labour. So far, the Liberal Democrats have held Northeast Fife and Orkney and the Shetland Islands, while the Conservatives have held Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire in the Border, and Dumfriesshire

All other seats have gone Nationalist – including Ayr, lost by the Tories – and for a while it looked as though the SNP only needed to convert two more to get the majority it needs to pile pressure on Westminster for a second independence referendum.

The regional list results, due to be announced tomorrow, could complicate the situation for the SNP if it loses seats on the list. So far it is unclear whether Alba and All for Unity – the region-only parties founded by Alex Salmond and George Galloway, respectively – will send anyone to Holyrood. Both are trailing below 3 per cent in all constituencies counted so far.

As counting continues, and resumes on Saturday morning, it is becoming clear that Nicola Sturgeon’s performance during the pandemic, combined with simmering resentments over Brexit and Boris Johnson’s leadership have won her a thumping victory. But it remains to be seen whether it is enough for an overall majority.