A new Scottish election poll suggests the SNP are unlikely to win an overall majority at tomorrow’s election and could lose two MSPs in the process.
The Savanta ComRes poll, carried out for the Scotsman, shows the likelihood of a majority slipping away from the SNP, down 3 points to just 42% in the constituency vote. It also shows the SNP dropping a further 2 points to 34% in the list voting intention.
Such a result would see the pro-independence party returned to government with 59 MSPs after 14 years in power and short of a majority by six seats.
According to this poll, the SNP would still retain an overall pro-independence majority alongside the Scottish Greens. The party is polling at 9% on the regional list and likely to return nine MSPs – an increase of four on its current number.
Scotsman political reporter Conor Matchett tweeted the results, saying: “It’s the worst polling for the [Scottish National] Party since October 2019, and would be a shock result if the poll is accurate. The poll continues a general downward trend for Nicola Sturgeon’s party.”
The Savanta ComRes results contrast to two other polls released yesterday, which pointed towards a majority for the SNP.
Research by Opinium, commissioned by Sky News, showed the SNP on track to secure a slim majority of 67 seats, while a YouGov poll for The Times suggested the party was set to secure a four-seat majority.
