When Jesus was healing the sick by casting out devils, the Pharisees retorted that he must be one of them, “Beelzebub, the ruler of Demons”. Christ gently pointed out the illogic of this argument noting that he could not be the devil because Satan would only weaken himself by getting rid of his minions. “Every kingdom divided against itself is brought to desolation, and every city or house divided against itself will not stand.”
Keir Starmer may be doing his best to purge his Labour party of potential troublemakers, but the Prime Minister has no chance to rid himself of those on his own side now bedevilling him. They are either elected members of parliament, or ex MPs and ministers who have ready access to bully pulpits in the media.
Every faltering step that Sunak takes to lead and set the political agenda is being immediately drowned out by dissenting voices from what should be his own side. The Conservative party is divided and seems set to fall from power, needing barely a push from the opposition to set it on its way.
Almost every day, it seems, a new group or “critical friend” springs up to argue the toss over the direction in which Rishi Sunak is trying to take his party. The Boris Johnson revivalist organisation the Conservative Democratic Organisation popped up on a seaside mission in Bournemouth. The National Conservatives burnished ties to the American Christian right in the appropriately named Emmanuel House, two blocks from parliament.
This week, The New Conservatives launched. They are a grouping of twenty-five MPs, elected in 2017 and 2019, largely in “Red Wall” seats, once held by Labour. Their membership includes Lee Anderson, a current vice chair of the party. Ipswich MP Tom Hunt says the group wants to be “constructive” and supportive of the Prime Minister. Their headline demand is for a two third cut in the current levels of immigration to 226,000. Thus they draw attention to his failure to reduce overall immigration or indeed “stop the boats” as he has pledged.
There is much overlap between those taking part in this organised Tory dissent. MPs Danny Kruger and Miriam Cates were attendees at the National Conservatives and are listed directors of New Conservatives Ltd. They are seeking adherents to a “New Social Covenant” rejecting “modern liberal culture”.
Many of the freelance voices criticising and sometimes openly attacking Sunak’s leadership are die-hard Borisites. Nadine Dorries wears her heart on her sleeve for the former Prime Minister and her hopes that he’ll get her a peerage. Sir Jacob Rees Mogg is frank that Rishinomics are in his view akin to socialism.
Another old Etonian and friend of Boris, Zac Goldsmith launched a more insidious attack over the weekend, by linking his departure from the government to a vital policy issue. The timing of his departure also blotted out Sunak’s promotion of the new NHS long term Employment plan.
Goldsmith claimed he was stepping down because Sunak is “simply uninterested” in the environment, Goldsmith’s ministerial area of responsibility and passion. As a result there is “a kind of paralysis” over taking appropriate action in Whitehall. He further rebuffed Sunak’s claim that he had gone because he refused “to apologise for your comments about the privileges committee”. Goldsmith says he was ready to do so, “as a minister”.
Mainstream Conservative MPs would like to shore up the party and minimize losses in what they all accept is bound to be a difficult general election. Senior MP John Penrose hopes that continuing upheavals are merely “aftershocks” of the fall of the colossus Boris Johnson. There is as little sign that tremors are dying away. Further trouble is written into the diary.
The would-be stabilising faction is broadly analogous with the 118 Conservative MPs who voted in support of the first Privileges Committee report into Johnson – just under half of the parliamentary party. Their loyalty to the institution over the World King and his courtiers will be on the line again in the approaching debate on the second report which names seven of their number for potentially holding parliament in contempt through their attacks on the committee.
Any vote on this report will be more difficult than last time. Pro Johnson forces are already massing to protest that the committee is being “precious, pompous and partial”, in the words in the Sunday Telegraph of Daniel Hannan, the ex-MEP elevated to the peerage by Johnson. His argument that the “sovereignty of parliament” is undermined if parliament considers the actions of its members outside the chamber seems strained but is already being echoed.
Since the expenses scandal, MPs have been trying to regulate their own behaviour, as relates to both financial and lobbying matters and bullying and sexual misbehaviour. Over Owen Paterson, and in his serial resignations from offices, Johnson was forced to accept that victory in a general election could not be a blank cheque for any misbehaviour in the subsequent five years. Sunak failed to establish his authority – either as a national leader or with his own party – by failing to take part in the vote on Johnson’s conduct.
Some voters will get to have a say earlier. The three byelections on 20th July look tricky for their party. David Warburton’s downfall in Somerton and Frome is a matter for him. The byelections caused by the voluntary resignations of Boris Johnson in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, and his ally Nigel Adams in Selby and Ainsty, amount to blue-on-blue friendly fire. The hesitant Nadine Dorries reportedly psyching herself up for a second salvo in Mid-Bedfordshire later in the summer.
There may be a further byelection in marginal Tamworth, if as expected Chris Pincher is sufficiently censured by the Standards Committee. Johnson’s prevarications over his knowledge of Pinchers groping precipitated his departure from Number Ten. In anticipation of defeats, Tories are already split on whether the angry voters hate Boris or think he should never have been martyred.
Sunak has not been able to master his party. Liz Truss beat him in his first leadership contest and he ascended by default in the second one. It is not his fault that he has no electoral mandate of his own. His internal critics like to hark back to Johnson’s 2019 manifesto and to the promises made over Brexit. “We promised a lot about taking back control of our borders in 2019”, according to the New Conservatives, adding menacingly “the clock is ticking.”
Sunak is struggling to scramble over the five, seemingly low-bar, pledge hurdles he set himself at the beginning of this year – “We’re either delivering or we are not” – on the economy, NHS waiting lists and stopping small boats. In spite of the UK’s dire economic straits, moderate “one nation” Conservatives have joined colleagues on their right in muttering that a proper Conservative prime minister would find a way to cut taxes.
Michael Gove promised to “be dull” in government so that MPs can spend more time campaigning in their constituencies. Those who are standing again, that is. Over forty have already headed for the exit with more likely to join them.
When the Zombie parliament judders into animation it only causes the government more trouble. The party is likely to split over the Boycott, Diversity and Sanctions Bill, designed to protect exchanges with Israel. Meanwhile the growing demand from red wall and other right-wingers that the Tories should propose a referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Convention of Human Rights threaten to make the Tory splits on Brexit look like a preliminary skirmish. On this issue again Sunak is reluctant to take a firm stand.
So much of the debate within the Tory party looks like a battle for its soul – and leadership – after the next election is lost. In this, Sunak is a bystander, treated in political terms as a proleptic dead man walking. He is unable to cast out his demons, as they quarrel viciously with each other. All of which means the Conservative house – or should that be Conservative Home? – remains divided.
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