Sunak fails post-conference test

At the Conservative Party Conference less than three weeks ago, Rishi Sunak tried to launch a new-look Tory Party that could stem the seemingly unstoppable momentum of a changed Labour Party. Last night’s by-elections show his efforts have failed.

In the Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire by-elections, there were swings of over 20 per cent from Tory to Labour – both top-ten post-war swings. 

In Tamworth, 14 miles north of Birmingham, the Labour candidate Sarah Edwards said after the news of her 1,300 majority that the voters had “sent a clear message to Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives that they have had enough of this failed government, which has crashed the economy and destroyed our public services.

“The people of Tamworth have made it clear. It’s time for change,” she said.

Change was also on the lips of Alistair Strathern who won in Nadine Dorries’s former seat of Mid Beds: “After decades of being taken for granted, feeling left behind, being underrepresented, they [voters] made a decision it was time for a change. Nowhere is off limits for this Labour party and tonight’s result proves it.”

The Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said it was “history in the making” but added: “But we take it humbly. We know that we have to earn every vote. People have put their trust and confidence in us and we thank them for that.”

Before the vote, there was speculation about how the Liberal Democrats would perform, given their massive victory in Tiverton and Somerton and Frome. Refusing to cede any territory in anti-tory tactics, the Lib Dems took nearly a quarter of the Mid Beds vote, yet Labour still turned an almost 24,664 Tory majority into a 1,192 Labour one. The Lib Dems performed poorly in Tamworth, a strong leave constituency, with Reform UK, a party that didn’t stand in 2019, winning 5 per cent of the vote.

Deep disenchantment with the Tory party has been a common leitmotif in British politics for some time now and by-elections are of course when that frustration manifests itself. Since 2019, The Tory party has now lost three by-elections by a swing of over 20 per cent.

There were some rather half-hearted attempts to play down the evening’s trouncing. Tory Party Chairman Greg Hands told the BBC: “I think the biggest problem was previous Conservative voters staying at home. The turnout was very, very low in both the polls, we didn’t really see any increase in Labour’s vote, the Lib Dems didn’t do well.”

Turnout was low in Tamworth at 35 per cent but average for a by-election in Mid Beds at 44. Labour’s vote did increase more in Tamworth than in Mid Beds, the latter of which was characterised by a huge Tory fall – but Hands is right that the Labour vote didn’t increase massively. Nadine Dorries and Chris Pincher both left in suboptimal circumstances.Reform UK could also prove a headache for the Tories. In both contests, Reform UK got more votes than the winning Labour candidate’s majority over the Conservatives.

These results mean Rishi Sunak has failed his first post-conference test. He is failing on all of his five pledges made in January. Watering down green policies did seem to give him a burst of energy, but it was not enough. In time the axing of HS2 may be vindicated. It redirects resources from a failed project to more efficient, useful ones. But to voters, it probably looked like an admittance of failure. 

The country is in the mood for change. At least Labour can make the argument that they’ve changed from the Corbyn era. Sunak trying to claim he represents change – after his party spending 13 years in charge – was always going to sound implausible.