Sunak & Macron: an Anglo-French bromance blossoms

“We have a geography that binds us,” French President Emmanuel Macron declared today as he warmly welcomed “dear” Rishi Sunak and his ministers to Paris for the first UK-France summit in five long years.

Speaking from the Elysée Palace, Sunak appeared similarly enthusiastic. Following years of strain, he described today’s talks as ushering in a “new beginning” in Anglo-French relations.

The summit was a chance to discuss energy and defence co-operation – forming an agreement, for instance, to train Ukrainian marines. But top of the agenda was talks on joint efforts to intercept migrant channel crossings.  

Following the summit, Sunak announced that the UK will contribute £479 million to France over three years to fund a migrant detention centre in France, place 500 extra patrol officers on French beaches and ramp up interception rates by employing drones and other surveillance technology. 

After a tense period in bilateral relations – characterised by post-Brexit trading rows, spats over vaccine supplies and petty insults galore – it was clear that both leaders were keen to press the reset button today. Sunak’s Windsor Agreement has helped to defuse tensions with the bloc while war in Ukraine has starkly reminded both leaders of their countries’ vital common interests.

What’s more, on a personal level, Macron and Sunak have a fair amount in common – both are technocratic leaders, former investment bankers and finance ministers, who, in their mid-40s, have made history as the youngest leaders in their countries’ postwar era.

But friendly handshakes and back pats aside, will the new deal they have signed achieve its aims? 

After all, it is hardly the first of this kind. The UK has given France over £250 million since 2015 in successive deals to “stop the boats”, yet a record 45,000 migrants crossed the channel last year, up from about 300 in 2018.

That said, this new deal is a big increase in money – more than double the annual amount that was previously being contributed per year. And, while Channel crossings have certainly increased, that’s not to say French patrol efforts have entirely failed. According to Macron, 30,000 small boat crossings were prevented last year. The Home office argues that if the interception figure rose to 75%, it would break the business model of the people-traffickers. 

Sunak is focused on stopping migrants from leaving the French coast because, as expected, he wasn’t able to secure a returns agreement with Macron. The French president insisted a bilateral agreement for France to take back migrants who cross the Channel is not feasible. France is part of the EU free-movement zone, he reasoned, so cannot unilaterally make decisions of that nature.

More to the point, what incentive would Macron possibly have for agreeing to such terms? France already receives around three times as many asylum claims as the UK annually, and, as far as he the French president is concerned, migrants who make the perilous journey to British shoes are no more his responsibility than Sunak’s. 

Focusing talks on enhanced beach patrols was certainly more likely to generate results. That said, if the expensive new deal signed today doesn’t curb the number of small boats arriving in Britain, then the Sunak-Macron bromance could be short lived. Indeed, a shared Channel – far from being a “binding geography” – could transpire to be what tears the two countries apart. 

But at least for today, both leaders seem to recognise that it is not in either of their country’s national interest to be at loggerheads.

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