Sunak must perform a minor rhetorical miracle to win the election

Whom the Gods wish to destroy, they must first make leader of the Conservative party. Of the last ten Tory leaders, including Ted Heath, only two  – William Hague and Michael Howard – left office at a moment of their own choosing. The rest either succumbed to Europe or were assassinated by their colleagues. Statistically, apart from the executioner’s axe, it was safer being one of Henry VIII’s wives.

Labour leaders have an easier life, with one spectacular exception. In electoral terms, Tony Blair was easily the most successful leader his party has ever had. Yet they never warmed to him. There is indeed an analogy with the EU. In each case, there was transplant surgery. A large new organ was implanted in an old body politic. In both cases, there was an assumption that everything would settle down, and that the dosage of immuno-suppressant drugs could be steadily reduced. In neither case did that happen. The rejection mechanism was never overcome.

Today, Keir Starmer is trying to resurrect Blairism, even to the extent of trying to steal the patriotic card from the Tories. It appears that patriotism is the last refuge of a Labour Leader who does not have an economic policy.

Now Rishi Sunak is trying to break the cycle of victimhood and assassination. He is beset on all sides by the charge that he is not a proper Tory. What would his critics prefer? Perhaps the moral depth of Boris Johnson, the Kissingerian geopolitical sweep of Richard Tice or the intellect of Liz Truss? 

So why are we in a position that a serious grown-up Prime Minister is assailed by a mountebank coalition? There are two explanations. For one, Sunak is to blame; for the other, the fault lies with a large section of his party. 

Rishi Sunak is to blame for not telling us who he is: what he believes, what are the roots of his Britishness, why he is delighted that his family moved to this wonderful country. I suspect that he is waiting for calmer waters, so that he could make a major speech without being harassed by events. If so, that could be a long wait. Once the local elections are over, when every political journalist will be phoning Tory MPs to ask whether they have sent in their letters – and why have we not heard recently from Nadine Dorries? – Rishi Sunak should seize the moment.

His Whips might remind wavering colleagues that empty vessels make the most noise, and that loyalty was said to be the Tory party’s secret weapon. Too damned secret, in recent times. But the PM needs to let the trumpet sound and the rallying call echo. If that happened, he could only hope that enough of his “supporters” were prepared to listen: to remember what Toryism is, and is not. In the first place, both at home and abroad, Toryism is a creed based on tough-minded realism. That was never truer than of Margaret Thatcher. Anyone who thinks that Liz Truss could have been a second Margaret Thatcher should read the Lady’s own memoirs, and Charles Moore’s magnificent biography. Certainly, Thatcher sometimes allowed inspiring words to outrun caution, and she would never have admitted that politics was the art of the possible. But that was what she practised. In the battles she fought, she was much more Quintus Fabius Maximus – or indeed Bernard Law Montgomery – than George S Patton.

Matters were different after she was driven from office. In retirement, she was condemned to produce much more adrenalin than she could consume and the fine balance of judgment which she always displayed when in power began to desert her. But to understand Thatcherism, look at what she actually did. It was indeed an inspiringly radical record but her manifold successes were only possible because of her firm grasp of reality.

To put it mildly, that was not a principal theme of the Truss Premiership. The late Queen tried to give Her final Premier good advice: “pace yourself”. Truss was incapable of understanding it, let alone following it. Whether she thought she was helping to load up Santa’s reindeers or auditioning for Mary Poppins, there is a simple question. How did she ever reach No.10? Deep state, shallow woman.

In order to give himself the best – the only – task of winning, Rishi Sunak has to perform a minor rhetorical miracle. He must simultaneously persuade the British public that good times are ahead, but that we are living in a dangerous world. The latter is an obvious truth. The West has never seemed weaker and its enemies, never more emboldened. It is as if we were losing the battle for the Enlightenment. The loss of self-confidence among so many western elites is bewildering. Imperfect though it may be, people who ought to know better seem incapable of defending our civilisation – our values, our culture, sometimes even our belief in scientific truth.

This is where the current government could help. Sir Keir will try his best to distance himself from the woke-warriors, but what does he actually believe? Although he will say anything to win, even sensible things, why should we trust him? If the Tories campaigned on commonsense, diplomatic leadership and economic hope – they would be saying what they really believed. That might communicate itself to the electorate. Rishi Sunak and David Cameron are the most formidable leadership combination anywhere. It should not be impossible to persuade the voters, albeit reluctantly, to accept that.

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