Sunak’s asylum gamble hangs in the balance

Rishi Sunak launched a fierce defence of his asylum policy at a fractious PMQs today, but the jury’s still out on whether his political gambit will pay off.

Tory MPs cheered as Sunak insisted the Illegal Migration Bill – which would prevent those arriving illegally in small boats across the Channel from claiming asylum and block them from returning or seeking citizenship – reflected the “people’s priority”.

The PM accused Sir Keir Starmer of being on the wrong side of this issue, calling him “just another leftie lawyer standing in our way.” (Sunak’s jibe echoes the wording used in an email sent out by CCHQ yesterday, giving Home Secretary Suella Braverman another fire to fight. The Hound has more).

The PM, buoyed by his recent Brexit breakthrough, clearly thinks he can capitalise politically with his asylum policy, turning a cursed issue for the Tories into a big win. He also seems to have made a cold calculation that taking a super-tough stance – which risks alienating Lib Dem-leaning would-be Tory voters in England’s leafy shires, for instance – is worth it.  

His instincts might well be on the money. Polling guru Matt Goodwin dismisses the idea that migration across the Channel is a marginal concern. In fact, it cuts through with voters in a way few other issues do. “It’s highly emotional,” writes Goodwin. “It hangs on notions of threat, belonging and insecurity,” and feeds “the public desire for a narrative of security at the next election.”

If so, then Sunak and Braverman may be halfway to playing a political blinder. Unfortunately, the second half is the hard bit – making it work. As Starmer alluded to in the Commons, after five prime ministers, six immigration plans and seven home secretaries, if the Tories are to stand any chance at the next election, they can’t afford to stumble at this hurdle yet again.

Sunak’s problem is this: If the Rwanda asylum plan didn’t appear to deter migrant crossings, why would this one? The new bill also appears to be vulnerable to the same legal challenges as the last, and more besides. What’s changed? Does the PM have something in his back pocket that we don’t know about?
Sunak’s own planned trip across the Channel suggests he might. In a meeting with Emmanuel Macron on Friday, the first UK-France summit since 2018, Sunak will seek to repair relations after seven years of Brexit spats.

Small boats will be top of the agenda. Yet while French officials are thought to be optimistic about enhancing cooperation on Channel patrols and tackling gangs, a returns agreement to send people back to France is a non-non.  

Sunak may also get more than he bargained for. The Times reports that Macron will demand that Britain makes annual multimillion-pound payments to France to fund “boots on the ground” on the beaches of Northern France. To convince doubters back home that his asylum policy isn’t another damp squib, Sunak must return home with more than just a hefty bill. 

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