Sunak’s fightback must be fierce – he has nothing to lose

Think back three years. Boris Johnson had not only won an election with a sound majority. There were arguments that it could turn into a watershed. Jeremy Corbyn’s prime ministerial ambitions were over, to the heartfelt relief of many Tories. Bur for Labour, what would happen next? Rarely has a leadership candidate seemed more inevitable than Keir Starmer. Just as rarely, inevitability had no reinforcement from enthusiasm. It was faute de mieux, with all faute and little mieux.

With very few exceptions, British general elections are won one at a time (1997 was such an exception). But big majorities can dissipate; the triumphs of polling day can rapidly give way to the embattlement of mid-term. Yet even with all those caveats, could Boris…? No, he could not. 

Three years on, the opinion polls seem to have settled down, with the government twenty points behind Labour. One gloomy senior Tory observed. “They want to get rid of us. They just haven’t worked out how.” “Time for a change” is the most potent slogan in British politics. So is it all over for Rishi Sunak? Not necessarily. There are a number of factors which could still promote a recovery in his fortunes.

First, the enthusiasm problem persists. Sir Keir has a certain wooden decency, which could have been dangerous against Boris. Neither word is applicable to him. But is it sufficient under fresh Tory management? There is a further point. Both leaders have a problem. No one yet knows nearly enough about what they believe.

One suspects that this is much more of a difficulty for Keir Starmer, who would like to be significantly more Left-wing than the voters would allow. He may be reduced to saying, in effect: “Of course we could do better than the Tories: we could hardly do worse.” It is not an impossible slogan, but it will hardly inspire the troops.

Sunak is different. In his case too, I suspect that we have only been treated to a smallish proportion of his views. But there is a crucial distinction. The Sunak philosophy is enticing. In particular, we ought to hear far more about two linked themes: patriotism and opportunity. In a depressing period in British politics, this young man offers excitement and renewal.

If Labour are sensible, they will try their version of “Thirteen wasted years”, a Labour sales pitch from the 1964 era. That would be grossly unfair to David Cameron but when has politics ever been fair? Sunak now needs to switch the focus to him: to use his personality to give the country a lift. 

It would help if he could pass an act of oblivion, in which the six post-Cameron Tory years fade from memory. “After Cameron, who were they again?” Sunak should invite others to draw the conclusion that the years of waste are over. 

That said, there is a lot wrong with Britain. But there is also a lot right. The rate of new business formation, high-tech start-ups and foreign investment: there are plenty of successes to boast about and the new PM is the man to make those points. He would be far more convincing in that context than Keir Starmer, pretending to enjoy breakfasting with businessmen.

There is also a great deal to complain about, especially in some aspects of the public sector. This is a problem for the government, because there is an obvious retort: “If you are in power, why haven’t you put things right.” But a programme of public service reform could win a lot of support, especially on health. Wes Streeting’s willingness to criticise various aspects of health provision could enable the government to embrace the Labour spokesman in a reformist consensus. Maurice Saatchi’s proposal for a Royal Commission would add to the general feeling that the case for NHS reform is, in effect, bipartisan. 

That would be excellent news for the Tories and could be seriously damaging for Labour. Health is still Labour’s most important issue. If it were to become neutralised it would not be clear how it could be replaced. At one stage in the approach march to the 1992 general election, John Major was 20 points behind. This was not as consistently doom-laden as recent weeks, but it does make an obvious point. Voters can be volatile. Some of the experts in Tory Central Office believe that an important element in the apparent Labour lead is indeed soft. It also seems likely that the alarming economic projections at the end of 2022 will be less severe than then seemed likely to occur. 

There are a lot of factors in place, including, of course, the culture wars. On the debit side for the Tories, there are ministerial embarrassments. Personally, I like Nadim Zahawi and find it hard to believe that he has done anything dishonourable. But there it is. It allows the Prime Minister to redeploy another formidable young politician and one whom the Labour benches fear. Kemi Badenoch would be a good fighting field commander.

Fighting: whoever is chosen, there will be a lot of hard pounding. In 18 months’ time, British politics could look very different. The Tories must begin that counter-attack by banishing any thought of intellectual exhaustion. After all, they have everything to fight for – and, on the current polls, little to lose.   

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