Super Tuesday set to cement Trump and Biden’s lead

The biggest day so far in this year’s US presidential race is underway.

It’s Super Tuesday, the largest one-day prize of the presidential nomination calendar, when US voters head to the polls in 15 states spanning the breadth of the continent, from Maine to California and Alaska to Alabama.

This year, Super Tuesday is distinctly devoid of suspense. Rarely in a US election year are both the Republican and Democrat candidates so predictable so early on. Biden and Trump both look set to comfortably win the nomination for their respective parties, paving the way for a rematch of 2020. 

Nikki Haley, Trump’s sole remaining Republican opponent, could throw in the towel in the coming days. The 52-year-old former South Carolina governor pledged to stick it out through Super Tuesday. While she secured her first victory against Trump last week in Washington DC, all other contests so far have merely cemented Trump’s advantage. 

Haley is not expected to win any of the 15 states heading to the polls today. Her legally bogged down rival was also boosted by yesterday’s US Supreme Court’s ruling that he will remain on the ballot in Colorado and Maine, despite both states attempting to disqualify him on the grounds of allegedly inciting insurrection.

Even if Haley refuses to end her campaign after a not-so-super Tuesday, the former US President is likely to have secured an unbeatable majority by mid-March.

As for the current US President, he has even less to worry about in terms of intra-party rivals. Joe Biden is all but certain to secure his party’s nomination, ahead of the token opposition provided by Congressman Dean Phillips and self-help author Marianne Williamson, who last week “un-suspended” her campaign.

The most serious obstacle to Biden to date comes not from a rival candidate but from abstainers. In Colorado, a last-minute campaign to stage a protest vote over Biden’s support of Israel is gathering momentum – inspired by the Michigan primary in which 13 per cent of voters declared themselves “uncommitted” in similar protest. But, given Michigan’s largest-in-the-nation Muslim and Arab population, a protest vote is unlikely to be as impactful in any other state. 

While Super Tuesday is set to be a predictable affair, there could be some election curveballs further down the line. 

As Iain Martin wrote in Reaction yesterday, speculation is swirling that Haley might cause trouble for Trump by running as an independent third-party candidate once he ties up the Republican nomination.

The biggest curveball of all could come later in August, if an 81-year-old Biden is forced to step aside last minute, amid serious concern over his mental acuity, or lack thereof. 

Back in February, an extensive report by the US Department of Justice’s special counsel listed an arresting series of the President’s cognitive failings. Biden’s attempts to invalidate the report backfired when he hosted an impromptu press conference that day to reject its findings but ended up muddling the president of Mexico with the president of Egypt. 

To date, Biden has resisted all calls to step aside and make way for a younger candidate. But Gerald Malone is convinced it will happen at the last minute. 

“At the current rate of decline in the President’s faculties, it seems almost inevitable a point will be reached by August when the pretence that he can credibly hold office for four more years will be threadbare,” writes Malone in Reaction. 

Biden will likely hang on in there until close to the convention. If he doesn’t, it would be difficult to deny the nomination to the unpopular Kamala Harris. At the Democratic convention in August, Biden could “abdicate”, meaning the Democrats would hold an open convention in which Harris would be only one of many runners. 

The results of Super Tuesday could paint a deceptively conclusive picture. 

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