Taliban takeover changes the equation in Central Asia

The phrase “The world is watching” is overused, but in relation to the desperate situation in Afghanistan, it’s true. Countries, groups, and individuals across the globe are following each twist and turn and are drawing conclusions.

Another overused expression is “The West”. In the 21^st century, a less dated and more useful term is “the industrialised democracies”. However, in this case it is apposite because “The West” in the shape of the US, the UK, and the other 26 countries in NATO has suffered a generational defeat. The Americans and others have demonstrated that when the going gets tough, they get going – for the exit. The lesson which may be drawn by both friends and enemies of this alliance is that its members have the kit, but not the will to keep their promises.

This does not mean that China will immediately invade Taiwan – America’s strategic interests are greater in the South China Sea than they are in Afghanistan – but it will cast doubt in Taipei’s mind about the reliability of its friends and will be factored into Beijing’s calculations about when to make its move. Hu Xijin, the editor of the Chinese Communist Party’s mouthpiece Global Times wrote that “The U.S. is an unreliable country that can abandon its allies at critical times, and the situation in Afghanistan sums it up,” while the Xinhua News Agency declared a “turning point in the decline of American hegemony.” Moscow may draw similar conclusions. The debacle does not mean the US and NATO will not fight in the future but one way not to have to fight is to put fear, or at least doubt, in your enemy’s mind. Afghanistan has done the opposite.

Terrorist groups from the Sahel to Syria and beyond will now note that there is once again a potential safe space in Afghanistan in which to train and then use to project their violence. Equally importantly, the Taliban will now be an inspirational magnet for would-be jihadists around the world. The assurances given that they will not give shelter to al-Qaeda is contradicted by experts who say privately the Taliban has assured al-Qaeda that they remain allies. The Haqqani network within the Taliban coalition is thought to still harbour al-Qaeda fighters within its ranks.

Afghanistan’s neighbours are the countries dealing with the initial concrete effects of the Talibs’ victory and not just from an influx of refugees. Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have their own militant jihadist groups and fear that the Taliban will give them assistance. Russia has been preparing for this for years and is determined to prevent the spread of violent Islamism towards it via the Central Asian republics. This is what is behind moves such as re-enforcing its 201^st Military Base in Tajikistan, and recent joint military exercises with the Tajik army near the Afghan border. Moscow intends to deny the Americans a foothold in Tajikistan and simultaneously use it as a buffer.

China is another country happy to see the US pushed out of Central Asia but has its own concerns. Its border with Afghanistan is in Xinxiang province, home to its restless, and repressed, Uighur Muslim population, some of which may seek ties with the Taliban. Beijing seeks stability in Afghanistan and does not concern itself with what political system its neighbour has. As such, having received assurances from the Taliban that it will not harbour groups hostile to China, Beijing may be the first country to recognise the new order, and then, if there is stability, move in on Afghanistan’s reconstruction projects and rare earth materials.

Many in the Pakistan government and military view the Taliban victory with glee and yet it may come back to bite them. Elements within the government, especially the intelligence services, have sheltered and armed the Talibs for decades. Pakistan views Afghanistan as its “strategic depth” – a space to fall back into in the event of being overrun by the Indian army. Afghanistan has also been a route into Kashmir for foreign fighters to fight the Indian military. Therefore, Pakistan always seeks a friendly government in Kabul. But the Taliban are overwhelmingly Pashtun and have strong relationships with the Pakistan Taliban (TPP) in the Pashtun regions across the border. The Pakistan Taliban are no friends of the state; indeed, they periodically try to take territory within the country. The danger now is that the Afghan Talibs may not feel beholden to Islamabad, but instead help their comrades in the TPP and threaten Pakistan itself.

The final neighbour, Iran, is another country delighted to see a western defeat. However, many Afghans over their border are Hazaras from the minority Shia population. They have long been persecuted by the Taliban and Tehran will have to balance its role as protector of the Afghan Shia, whilst establishing working relations with the Talibs.

All these players will keep their eyes on what happens inside Afghanistan. Already emerging is the outline of a possible fightback. President Ghani may have fled the country, but his deputy, Amrullah Saleh, only went as far as the Panjshir Valley 40 miles to the north of Kabul. There he declared himself acting President and met with Ahmad Massoud, son of the legendary anti-Soviet and anti-Taliban Northern Alliance commander Ahmad Shah Massoud – “The Lion of Panjshir”. Massoud, who read war studies at King’s College London and received military training at Sandhurst, has promised to lead the anti-Taliban resistance, although a role in a federal Afghanistan is another possibility. 

Even the Taliban fear venturing into the Panjshir. There’s only one road in and the valley is littered with the burnt out remains of Soviet armoured vehicles. Since Saleh showed up many units from the Afghan special forces have arrived along with ethnic Tajiks from the Afghan Army who have brought heavy weapons with them. This gives the option for some foreign governments to recognise Saleh and his entourage as the legitimate government. This in turn would mean it might be allowed access to government funds abroad which are currently frozen so as not to fall into the hands of the Taliban. If so, the nucleus of resistance would be created. After that a corridor would have to be opened to the Tajik border to ensure a supply route – no easy matter. It may not come to pass, but it’s an option.

These are the factors in play as the world watches. As the western nations take stock of their failure, and their role in the world now, they might ponder the words of Winston Churchill after the betrayal of Czechoslovakia at Munich in 1938: “And do not suppose that this is the end. This is only the beginning of the reckoning. This is only the first sip, the first foretaste of a bitter cup which will be proffered to us year by year unless by a supreme recovery of moral health and martial vigour, we arise again and take our stand for freedom as in the olden time.”