Going, going, and – if you’re German or Polish – gone. No, not the European Championship – foreign troops in Afghanistan.
The rush for the door which began in early May, when President Biden announced the US withdrawal, has gathered pace, albeit quietly. This week the last German troops flew out of the northern city of Mazar-i-Sharif on a transport plane “in an orderly manner, but also as swiftly as possible.” The Poles left, and the Italians declared that their military mission was over.
The British have mostly gone although a few troops remain while the UK government makes its mind up about whether to maintain an embassy in Kabul. It probably will, but it’s a tough call. Not having an embassy would be an admission of the scale of failure of the NATO mission, but having an embassy risks a panicked and humiliating evacuation if, as is possible, the capital falls to the Taliban.
Since Biden’s announcement the Taliban has made considerable territorial gains in dozens of districts. In some they negotiated the surrender of the demoralised Afghan security forces, in others they overran their opponents’ defences as in Faryab province in the north where 24 members of an elite commando unit were killed. Attacks on journalists, teachers, women, and ethnic minorities are all increasing. This is the background to a leaked US intelligence report which suggested the Afghan government could fall by the end of the year. Even more optimistic projections foresee the Taliban controlling huge swathes of the country and besieging the gates of the capital.
Several factors mean the latter scenario is more likely than a complete short-term collapse. The American administration wants to keep up the pretence that it has, as Biden says, achieved its goals because al-Qaeda has been greatly diminished, bin-Laden is dead, and the Taliban has agreed with Washington not to harbour foreign terror groups. The fall of Kabul to the Taliban, which maintains ties to al-Qaeda, would further dent an already battered excuse for the American retreat. Therefore, the US will keep several hundred special forces troops in the country to guard the embassy and its diplomats and conduct occasional operations. The British are likely to maintain special forces, albeit in much smaller numbers.
A priority for the Americans will be to keep Kabul airport open, especially as it has been confirmed that the military airbase at Bagram is to close by September. Without the international airport embassies and foreign aid organisations could not function, nor would there be an evacuation route in case of an emergency. The US will keep a fleet of Black Hawk helicopters there along with pilots and maintenance crews. Washington is currently negotiating a deal with Ankara through which the airport would be guarded by the Turkish military which has about 600 military personnel in Afghanistan. The Talibs reacted to the news of the negotiations with a statement saying: “The presence of foreign forces under whatever name or by whichever country in our homeland is unacceptable for the Afghan people and the Islamic Emirate.” This suggests that the non-combat role of Turkish troops in Afghanistan could be tested.
Outside players, such as Turkey, are among the factors which mean a total victory for the Taliban is not inevitable. For example, China does not want to see Afghanistan run by Islamist fanatics. The two countries share a short border and are connected by the Wakhan Corridor which runs into Xinxiang province, home to China’s restive and persecuted Muslim Uighur population.
Russia fears that a Taliban victory would inspire the myriad Islamist extremist groups in the Central Asian states such as Tajikistan which has a long frontier with Afghanistan. The Taliban recently captured the main border crossing. Moscow has two priorities here. Preventing the spread of instability and blocking the Americans in Central Asia. Washington is looking for “over the horizon” options for its air force once it’s out of Afghanistan, which is why President Putin recently approved the creation of a joint regional air defence system. The message to America was “Don’t even think of Tajikistan as your back-up plan”. China and Russia could both offer support to the Afghan government and ethnic minorities such as the Tajiks and Hazaras who have always resisted the Taliban, which is dominated by Pashtuns.
They’re going to need help. The recent losses by government forces are partially down to the lack of US air support for the Afghan forces, a problem which is going to become more acute. The districts taken by the Taliban surround several provincial capitals which suggests an intention to take them. Morale among the government troops is said to be low, whereas their opponents are on the front foot. To the south of Kabul, the Taliban is closing in on the city of Ghazni which is on the highway linking the capital with the province of Kandahar. To the north, it has captured the district of Doshi through which runs the only main road to northern regions.
The Taliban is also increasingly well-armed. An investigative website, Oryx, has documented how in June alone the Taliban captured more than 700 military vehicles from the Afghan forces including armoured Humvees and trucks capable of carrying troops. Heavy machine guns, recoilless rifles, grenade launchers and towed howitzers with a range of about 9 miles were also taken.
There’s a summer of fighting ahead, followed by the withdrawal of NATO troops by the autumn, and then a winter of discontent.
