The Battle of Rafah comes ever closer

Israel’s Defence Forces (IDF) are preparing for a further six to eight weeks of full-scale military operations in southern Gaza before a planned move to lower-intensity targeted airstrikes and special forces operations.

According to Reuters, which cites anonymous Israeli officials familiar with the plan, IDF leaders believe they can meaningfully incapacitate the remaining Hamas battalions in the next short phase of the war allowing the Israeli military to pull back.

Defence minister Yoav Gallant said on Friday: “There were 24 regional [Hamas] battalions in Gaza – we have dismantled 18 of them. Now, Rafah is the next Hamas centre of gravity.”

On Sunday, Benny Gantz, a retired Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff, told a conference of American Jewish leaders in Jerusalem: “The world must know, and Hamas leaders must know – if by Ramadan our hostages are not home, the fighting will continue everywhere, including the Rafah area.”

The beginning of Ramadan, the Muslim holy month, is 10 March, just under three weeks away. 

Earlier this month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a ceasefire proposition from Hamas which would see the release of hostages and Israeli troops pull out of Gaza over four months as “delusional”. 

As the fighting draws closer to Rafah, where almost two million Palestinians are squashed into a city that had a pre-war population of 300,000, world leaders are cautioning that there could be a serious humanitarian disaster, worse than the one that already exists. 

The Egyptian government is setting up an emergency camp near the border should the fighting engulf Rafah, although the government has officially denied this. 

The expectation of the IDF moving into Rafah comes after a week in which US President Joe Biden twice phoned Netanyahu to warn him that any Israeli military operations must have a credible plan for civilian safety. 

According to an anonymous Israeli security source, the IDF may screen Palestinians to detect and capture Hamas operatives and allow the civilians back up north. But Israeli bombardment and intense fighting have left most of Gaza in ruins.

Another plan is to build floating jetties on the Mediterranean Sea to the north of Rafah to allow for aid and hospital ships to arrive. The surrounding desert scrubland around Rafah is full of unexploded shells and has no running water, making it unsuitable for a temporary tent city. 

Today, Israel’s foreign minister labelled Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, or Lula, “persona non grata” after he accused Israel of committing genocide akin to the Holocaust. Israel has been steadily losing the support of the international community with each day that passes. The Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza puts the Palestinian death toll above 28,000.

Netanyahu also has problems domestically. A huge anti-government protest demanding immediate elections took place in Tel Aviv on Sunday. What’s more, official data showed that Israel’s economy had shrunk by 20 per cent since the start of the war. This was largely due to the call-up of 300,000 reservists who had to leave their workplaces. Also, the government has sponsored housing for more than 120,000 Israelis evacuated from the northern and southern border areas of the country. 

As the seemingly inexorable Battle of Rafah looms large, the world waits with baited breath hoping further calamity may be avoided.

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