The good news is the West rallied in 2022

In the hours before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and in the first week after it, the focus of discussion was primarily about the likely inability of the Ukrainian forces to hold out for long.

The expectation outside Ukraine was that President Zelensky would leave Kyiv hastily, to avoid assassination or a show trial by the Russians. A government in exile, in Warsaw, London or Washington, would have to be formed, diplomats said. This was not defeatism. Just a realistic recognition of the numerical imbalance of forces and sheer weight of history.

Instead, something remarkable happened in late February. Demonstrating, once again, the power and impact of the individual in history, Zelensky refused the offer of escape from the Americans. The psychological shock of this brave decision to stand and fight provided a massive morale boost to Ukrainian forces, just as the Russians started to struggle with their poorly-planned assault.

Long wars are won by an interplay of all manner of complex and interconnecting forces, including military industrial capacity and weapons manufacture. The capacity to train, adapt and innovate. Sustained access to finance. And some luck via an arrogant opponent making mistakes. But turning points can and do sometimes come down to individual decisions, the triumph of the human spirit when confronting a bully. That is the glory of what Zelensky did and continues to do.

It is worth remembering at the end of 2022 that alternative scenario, that branching history in which Russia won in a few weeks. It didn’t happen. The Ukrainians, who were given ten minutes, have lasted ten months.

The Ukrainian fightback caught its allies out at first. If Ukraine had folded relatively quickly, or ended up in a war of resistance during an occupation, then a peace negotiation of the kind floated for a while in France and by ultra-realist “be-nice-to-the-Russian-bear” commentators would have been required. As it is, the more robust position taken from the start by the US, UK, Canada and Poland has ended up being vindicated.

While there is much to lament about 2022, a year of post-pandemic exhaustion, war in Europe, tension with China, and inflation, something cheering and significant happened too. The West, so often written about as being in terminal decline, rallied. US aid to Ukraine amounted to $68bn by the end of November, with tens of billions more to come. Britain has been steadfast, invaluable on training and intelligence, say the Ukrainians. Simultaneously, the centre of geopolitical gravity in Europe has shifted to fast-growing Poland (GDP up 4% this year according to the European Commission). Sweden and Finland are joining NATO.

This was supposed to be the year of the autocrats, with Putin winning an easy war and China’s Xi Jinping more powerful than ever. It has not played out like that. This year, the disputatious, noisy, democratic, innovative West has demonstrated it is far from finished.

How Number 10 screwed up energy reduction

One of the oddest aspects of British policy in the run up to the war in Ukraine and its aftermath was the strange inability of the government to switch to a proper war era energy policy. Not only was there no major move on increasing supply, when the country needs to get its hands on more of every kind of energy. Renewing storage on gas is happening, although it took an age. Weirdest of all there has been no public information campaign to encourage reduced use of energy. This is odd because it would only cost in the region of £20m, against an energy bailout and subsidy of consumers that will cost north of £100bn.

This week it was announced there will be a campaign, at last, ten months late. The adverts have started running online. They involve Grant Shapps and a mischievous elf.

Britain has not reduced its use meaningfully this year when you take out the warm autumn weather effect. Aidan Kerr, of Drax Group, highlighted it this week. The four biggest nations in Europe consumed 30-40% less gas than in previous years, compared to a fall of only 20% in Britain.  

Various other European countries have introduced restrictions on energy use in public buildings. Germany has been the most ambitious, with a highly successful public campaign to reduce energy use and rigorous targets on using less gas.

This was only needed, of course, because of the utter failure and collapse of Merkelism. Germany under Angela Merkel became even more addicted to Russian gas. When she was in office, the former Chancellor was hailed by her fans in Britain and elsewhere as the ultimate political sophisticate, and yet Germany made a catastrophic series of misjudgments that emboldened Putin.

Britain got the war part right, warning it was coming and then offering military support. Somehow its government failed to make the connection between a sustained war it had been right about and the need to prepare for a long energy crisis. 

It seemed so obvious all year that a PM, one of them, should have addressed the nation and explained the war requires a shared sacrifice and effort on energy.

Jacob Rees-Mogg MP, hardly an advocate of nanny statism, wanted such a campaign. Privately, he suggested a public information campaign when he was Business Secretary, briefly, during the Truss interregnum. Those saying the public can figure it out are making the mistake of assuming everyone is as clever as they are. Many of us don’t know. There is widespread ignorance of how to make savings and adjust heating systems to reduce use.

The sensible case put by Rees-Mogg to Number 10 was that there was no downside to a campaign emphasising three savings beginning with B. It’s a bargain. Reduce your own bills, reduce the size of the national bailout, and reduce the nation’s borrowings.

It seemed Truss agreed, or at least Rees-Mogg was given that impression. Then the campaign was blocked mysteriously. Then she was gone.

Belatedly, Rishi Sunak’s administration will, deep into this winter already, begin some form of campaign soon.

Early in the year, last winter, was when the big opportunity was missed. Why didn’t it happen?

The personality of Boris Johnson is a factor. He dislikes nanny statism by instinct and believed there had been enough of that already during Covid. He was also “high on his own supply” after Cop26, held in Glasgow in November 2021. It had been deemed a public relations success, if you like that sort of thing. Energy had been “sorted” and he was by January distracted by being mired increasingly in scandals.

But I’m told the decision also owed a lot to a Thick of It type media conflagration, according to a former Number 10 person.

In early January this year a public relations row broke out involving the energy firm Ovo. An enthusiastic employee sent an email to customers suggesting they turn down the heating, do star jumps to stay warm, or clean the house, or cuddle their pets.

A horrified Number 10 recoiled. The CEO of the firm had to apologise. The “row” ran for days. Looking back through the cuttings, the media and the Westminster lobby behaved badly, chasing a gotcha moment. That was how Number 10 saw it. “No one wanted to be caught at a briefing appearing to ask the public to perform star jumps to keep their heating bill down,” says someone then in the Number 10 media machine.

Energy reduction campaigns were tarnished in government at just the wrong moment, six weeks before the start of a war the UK government did see coming. An organised PM, a Thatcher for example, would have shown leadership on rethinking energy policy but this was Boris. This is a mistake that will likely have cost the country a fortune – easily more than £10bn this year. Who’s counting, though? It’s only other people’s money. That is, it is only our money as taxpayers. The bigger the numbers get, the less anyone seems to care.

Pretty great Britain

To say there’s a widespread downer on Britain right now is an understatement. Even though I think it is overdone, there is no doubt investors are wary following the apocalyptic economic projections of the last few months. The unpropitious backdrop has been a rolling Westminster farce, in the year of the three Prime Ministers.

As a shrewd German friend put it to me recently, non-Britons tend to see it like watching a confused ex-partner after a divorce running around trying and failing to make new friends, in America, India and Australia, anywhere that will have us. Going to nightclubs. Having inappropriate work done. Falling over. Being undignified. Aren’t the Brits supposed to be old enough to know better?

My German friend said there is an irony in Britain being mocked when the UK’s response on Ukraine has been exemplary. Although Boris Johnson got a lot wrong, on the war he was clear. Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, warned correctly that the Russians were going to invade, was not believed in European capitals, and has been resolute throughout.

Perhaps there is a reluctance to acknowledge an awkward truth: European security is being defended by two nation states that are not in the EU, the US and the UK. The European Union is not Europe, after all.

I thought of this when going through passport control the other day leaving one of my favourite European countries. Border guards, who hold the power in that moment when we want to get through to get home, are the frontline troops in this cultural battle.

They seem to enjoy pointing out that Brexit means longer queues. A colleague was asked about his birthplace in a third country. Why didn’t he pursue dual nationality? He should think about it, he was advised by the sombre border guard. Another, non-British, passport could make life a lot easier, he was told. 

It is now common to hear amused or saddened criticism of Britain when travelling around Europe, particularly after the Fawlty Towers-style political shenanigans of the last year. Silly old Britain, with its funny new, blue passports and non-membership of the EU club.

The British need to start pushing back, politely, on all this. If Britain really is so rubbish, how come this is not the view where it really matters, in Kyiv?

What I’m reading

The Wine Society catalogue/list. It’s nearly Christmas. Cheers.