A Sultan meets a Knight of the Realm. Amid the disturbing race riots that have rocked the United Kingdom over the last week, Sir Keir Starmer hosted the ruler of Britain’s oldest, and arguably most steadfast, ally in the Arab World – Haitham Bin Tariq, the Sultan of Oman. Dressed in an immaculately tailored Nehru suit and karakul cap, the Sultan shook hands with the Prime Minister in front of 10 Downing Street on Tuesday. The two then exchanged warm words as Sir Keir paid tribute to the “special friendship” between the Sultanate of Oman and Great Britain.
The Prime Minister also paid tribute to the agreement brokered by Captain John Malcolm with Seyyid Sultan bin Ahmed of Muscat in 1800 on behalf of the East India Company, which expressed the intention that friendship between the British and the rulers of Muscat “may remain unshook until the end of time.”
The meeting between the Sultan and Sir Keir was significant for a number of reasons. Firstly, it was a welcome distraction. At a time of domestic unrest, the meeting provided a perfect opportunity to demonstrate Britain’s enduring commitment to an international alliance that has stood the test of time and transcends boundaries of race, culture and religion.
Of equal importance, however, is what it tells us about the new government’s approach to Britain’s historic allies in the Arab Gulf States. Labour’s manifesto at the general election stated the party’s desire to “deepen our co-operation with partners across the Gulf on regional security, energy and trade and investment”. The Sultan’s visit therefore provides an encouraging sign that the new government is serious about following through on its commitment to enhancing the UK’s strategic and economic connections with the Arab Gulf States.
The new government has wasted no time in demonstrating its intentions in this regard: on 15 July, the Prime Minister made phone calls to both the Sultan of Oman and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince, Muhammad Bin Salman. And on 31 July, the Foreign Secretary and the Defence Secretary made a joint visit to Qatar.
This is a wise path to follow. The government may be tempted in the coming years to pour all of its energies into rebuilding the UK’s damaged relations with the European Union, and to neglect commitments further afield. Given the complexity involved in conducting diplomacy in the Middle East, it would be easy for Labour to fall back into its comfort zone of strengthening European ties and thereby allowing relations with Britain’s Gulf allies to languish. It is easy for a Prime Minister of the left to make the case for moving the UK closer to the mostly liberal and decarbonising democracies of the EU. It is a somewhat harder sell to explain why a group of predominantly oil-producing, socially conservative absolute monarchies are just as important to our national interests.
However, it is important to make the case for maintaining and upgrading Britain’s alliances in the Gulf. Shrewd Gulf diplomacy must be at the heart of Sir Keir’s alternative to the Conservatives’ vision of a Global Britain. The six countries that form the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Oman – will be essential partners in deterring Iranian influence and finding a peaceful political settlement in the Middle East. They will also be central to developing any sustainable solution to the terrible conflict in Gaza and the wider issue of Palestinian statehood. When the war is over, they are the ones who will have the resources and necessary drive to help rebuild the hospitals, schools and houses that have been left in ruins by Israel’s offensive.
These countries also cannot be ignored by a government which has expressed its intention to strengthen its engagement with the Indo-Pacific. This intention is important, for the Indian Ocean accounts for over one-third of the world’s bulk cargo traffic and two-thirds of global oil shipments. The GCC states command several of the key strategic ports and lands adjacent to the shipping routes and choke points for this trade. They connect markets in the Far East and India with those of the West.
Energy security must also be factored into the equation. In 2023, the UK imported 14% of its Liquefied Natural Gas from Qatar, a sum which amounted to a small but nonetheless significant part of the UK’s total energy imports. As the Gulf states continue to diversify their economies away from their reliance on oil and gas revenues, they are also set to become major exporters of renewable solar power. At a time when the UK and other European countries are seeking to lessen their energy dependence on Russia, the Gulf provides an indispensable alternative.
The stability of the Arabian Peninsula is not only of central importance to the security of global trade and energy supplies. Closer to home, the vast hydrocarbon revenues of the Gulf monarchies will also play a vital part in fuelling investments and future economic growth in Britain itself. Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia announced that it would invest £3 billion in the North East of England and create 2,000 new jobs. The Saudi state petrochemicals company, SABIC, already operates two manufacturing, storage and logistics sites in Teesside.
Crucially, trade and investments with the Gulf countries also flows both ways – the GCC as a whole is equivalent to the UK’s seventh largest export partner.
This all makes it necessary for the UK to pursue a proactive approach to military and security cooperation as well as enhancing its economic partnerships. The government’s next move should be to score a quick win and secure a Free Trade Agreement with the GCC. After six rounds of negotiations, the previous government made great strides towards securing a trade deal, but it was unable to get it over the line before the general election.
Those who were close to the GCC trade negotiations say that, in contrast to the protracted trade negotiations with India and Canada, the remaining obstacles standing in the way of a comprehensive deal are minimal. There are no major disagreements over tariffs or trade barriers. It is understood that the outstanding issues largely surround such complicated but resolvable issues as business regulations, technology sharing, data protection and the mutual recognition of professional qualifications. It will take time to coordinate the six GCC countries to get an agreement over the line, but a deal is there for the taking should the government want it.
In all this, there is a significant political dividend to be gained at home as well. If Sir Keir Starmer’s government were to secure a trade deal with the GCC, it would outflank the Conservatives on their own terrain and allow Labour to claim the credit for a major economic and geopolitical coup. It might just allow Sir Keir to claim that Labour is more serious about turning the vision of a Global Britain into a reality than the Tories, who spoke often about the opportunities available to Britain after Brexit, but delivered little.
Jack Dickens is an historian of modern Europe and the Middle East. He is currently Editor of Inside Saudi – a new publication providing readers in the City of London with the latest business and financial news from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
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