We will know much more about the Maine mass shooting in the coming days and months, but what we know so far fits a tragic pattern.
Robert Card murdered at least 18 people and injured 13 others during an indiscriminate mass shooting spree. He has since been found dead following an apparent self-inflicted gun wound.
Card, an active army reservist, supposedly “heard voices”, and was briefly committed to a psychiatric facility earlier in the year. Despite Card’s supposed mental state, his military ID was still active during the time of the incident. This means the process needed to discharge Card, be it dishonourably, generally, or medically, had not been completed.
Card’s veteran status is important. As an active army reservist, Card would have had various privileges, including access to military-issue weapons. Although the chances are slim, it is possible the weapons he used to kill innocent people may be army issue. This was true of disgraced LAPD police officer and honourably discharged naval reservist Christopher Dorner, who went on a killing spree in Los Angeles in 2013 after taking weapons from a military base.
Despite popular beliefs, massacres such as the one in Maine are relatively rare. According to the strictest definitions of what constitutes a mass shooting (which involves four or more deaths excluding the shooter, the events being continuous, and the shootings being unrelated to other crimes), there are only a handful of events like Lewiston per year.
When advocacy groups or journalists claim there are hundreds of mass shooting incidents per year, they are normally quoting statistics from the Gun Violence Archive or Everytown For Gun Safety. During most of these mass shootings, no one dies, or just one person dies (which could be a suicide); according to Everytown, in 95% of cases, fewer than four people die.
To illustrate the variation in the recording of these events, Rand Corp did an investigation into how many mass shootings there were in America during the year 2019: according to the Gun Violence Archive there were 418, whereas The Violence Project, with the strict parameters mentioned, claimed there were six.
According to The Violence Project, a database compiled by two academics with PhD’s, between 1966-2022 there were 190 mass shootings in America. More than 25% were committed by people with at least some military experience. Of this group, about a quarter were in the Marines and many others left the army in disgrace, being generally or dishonourably discharged.
Analysing America’s most deadly mass shootings shows that these events aren’t as inexplicable as people think, and often perpetrators have similar back stories.
The first recorded indiscriminate mass shooting in America was in Winfield, Kansas, in 1903. After being jilted by his fiancée, Gilbert Twigg joined the US military in 1896. In 1903, the year after he got out of the military, Twigg was unable to assimilate back into normal life, people in his home town refused to employ him, and eventually he acquired an arsenal of weaponry, wrote what we would now describe as a manifesto, and went on a killing spree.
The next two notable indiscriminate mass shootings in American history, the Walk of Death, New Jersey 1949, and the University of Texas Tower Shooting, 1966, were also both committed by veterans with complicated romantic relationships who struggled to assimilate into civilian life, and then suddenly unravelled.
There is a lot we don’t know about Card, and what triggered him, but the chances are that it will be a story we’ve heard before. It will not be a shock if Card had been known to law enforcement for domestic violence, or perhaps even charged for it. In a study of mass shootings between 2014-2019, 70% of mass shooters either killed a family member or (ex)partner at the beginning of their spree or were known domestic abusers. At this time we do not know if that happened in this case.
Card probably experienced some other external stressors or grievances in the build-up, like losing his job, had a company fail, got dumped or divorced, or had a close family member die. It is most likely that he proceeded to warn others that he was going to do something extreme like this, which in the world of mass shooting prevention is known as “leakage”, i.e. they leaked their plans. Perhaps Card even published a manifesto, or wrote a letter explaining his motivation. Unsurprisingly, these writings are often conspiratorial, and the writer often bemoans their personal torments and feelings that have grown to be intolerable.
Much will be made of Maine’s gun laws. Why this was able to happen must be analysed. But it must be pointed out that in a country with 400 million guns, blanket gun laws can do very little to protect people against the likes of Robert Card. Advocates are decrying the lack of “red flag laws” in the State. But these laws rely on background checks, and people like Card already had guns purchased legally, and as an active military member, he had access to vast hordes of weaponry. Therefore, they would not have stopped this event from happening.
Just about the only thing that could have stopped Card was an Extreme Risk Protection Order (ERPO). These allow law enforcement, with the support of a judge, to forcibly remove firearms from someone suspected of being about to commit violence in the community or in their home in the imminent future. These are different in every State, and only 21 States have some form of ERPO. ERPO’s are fairly new, before 2016 only two states had them, and they are not designed to specifically deal with potential mass shooters. In fact, the most of ERPO’s are used to stop community violence related to crime, domestic violence, or suicides. Their efficacy is still being evaluated, but in theory, it is a State’s best option to reduce the frequency of mass shootings.
This is all to say that blanket gun laws, like background checks, will probably not stop the Robert Cards of this world going on a rampage. These laws are the equivalent of trying to separate a singular needle from an almost identical pile of other needles. This is why the strength of a State’s gun laws seems to have no impact on the frequency of mass shootings which occur within a State. (Although the type of guns which can be purchased in a State, and the availability of high capacity magazines, does seem to impact the number of casualties during mass shooting events.)
Nevertheless, there are opportunities to dramatically reduce the frequency of mass shootings.
First, the military must take seriously their duty to protect America from threats at home as well as abroad, even when these threats come from their own. Armed personnel need better aftercare once they leave the military, even if they are dishonourably or generally discharged. The military knows this.
In April of this year, the US government was forced to pay $144.5 million to the families of the 26 victims of the Sutherland Springs Mass Shooting 2017. The Air Force was found “60% responsible” for the attack, the deadliest mass shooting in any place of worship in America. This was because they had not shared their concerns about the shooter, Devin Patrick Kelley, with law enforcement after he abused his wife and fractured his stepson’s skull. Kelley was court martialed for these offences, but was able to legally purchase firearms afterwards.
Second, warning signs like the ones which we will find out Card presented with must be transmitted to law enforcement and other frontline agencies making assessments.
Third, legislation such as Extreme Risk Protection Orders (ERPO’s) needs to be made far less cumbersome, lengthier (most ERPO’s only last 12 months), and the information about subjects being under firearm restrictions must be shared across State boundaries.
Saul Glick is a former London Metropolitan Police officer and Harvard Kennedy Scholar. He is currently the International Fellow for Law and Applied Neuroscience at Harvard Law School’s The Petrie Flom Center, and Harvard Medical School’s Center for Law, Brain & Behavior.
