What? This does not fit the narrative: that May has suffered an epic humiliation; that an expected landslide majority has turned out to be an overall loss of seats; that she called an unnecessary election that’s cost her a Commons majority; that the unelectable Jeremy Corbyn is being paraded around like he’s the winner.
All of these things are true. But when she goes to Brussels to start the Brexit negotiations, far from the laughing stock of Europe some on this side of the Channel are trying to portray her as, she can hold her head high because she actually has electoral clout that most of her EU counterparts could only dream of.
I have compiled a league table of European Council members (excluding the Presidents of the Council and Commission who are not elected by the general public). In their most recent open elections, Theresa May’s 42.4% share of the vote actually puts her in fifth place of the 28 leaders. (I’m excluding runoff rounds for the four directly elected Presidents as this would distort the results; including them would push her down to a still impressive ninth place.)
Four of her counterparts have never faced the electorate as leaders. Seven did not even top the polls in their most recent elections. (Three of them came third!) In fact only three of the 24 Parliamentary systems have a single party with a majority of the seats. Seven seats short of an overall majority, May’s is the sixth strongest Parliamentary position of the 24.
There was much mirth at Merkel’s congratulatory phone call to the PM on Sunday, as though it was a mocking gesture. Merkel is in no position to laugh – she actually has a smaller vote share than May and is stuck in a grand coalition with the main opposition party as she is five seats short of a majority. (Probably not a viable option in Britain.)
If you compare her result against Council members’ best ever results, May still comes a very impressive seventh place in my league table. Not bad for an electoral albatross.
Look at the data in full here.
