The Niger dilemma: ECOWAS ponders military intervention to overturn the coup

Damned if you do – damned if you don’t. That’s the dilemma facing the Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS) as it ponders a military intervention to overturn the coup in Niger. 

Taking action could be catastrophic at many levels and spell the end of the 15-nation bloc. Doing nothing leaves another member state as a military dictatorship, weakens ECOWAS to the level of irrelevancy, and threatens to turn the entire region into a series of dictatorships backed by Russia.

ECOWAS, currently chaired by Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu, has painted itself into a corner. Last Sunday, Tinubu said member states “shall not waiver or flinch in our resolve to defend and preserve constitutional order” and suggested there was a 7 day deadline for Niger’s ousted President, Mohamed Bazoum, to be reinstated. Military chiefs assembled and Nigeria’s Chief of Staff, Christopher Musa gave an interview to RFI Hausa saying his forces were ready to intervene if necessary. This raises the question ‘You and whose Army?’

Nigeria is the only ECOWAS country capable of a meaningful intervention and without Nigeria it’s unlikely there will be other volunteers. Burkina Faso, Mali, and Guinea can be ruled out as they are suspended from the bloc due to being run by soldiers who seized power in their own coups. Indeed, all three say they would support Niger in the event of war although they would be of limited assistance even if all three are now being assisted by Russia. Nevertheless, Burkina Faso’s 35-year-old coup leader, Captain (now President) Ibrahim Traore, is a man worth watching. With his well-tailored camouflage uniform, maroon beret, charismatic looks, and a good line in anti-colonial rhetoric, he has captured attention across the region. If his country had oil, he’d be a good bet for being the next Colonel Gaddafi. 

So having given a deadline, ECOWAS (Nigeria) now has to enforce it, or find a way to peacefully persuade the Niger coup leader, Gen Abdourahamane Tiani and his staff to leave town. President Tinubu has staked his reputation on the crisis, and to an extent, that of Nigeria which, with its 215 million strong population, is the most populous African nation and has the biggest army. Enforcement would require crossing into Niger along their 1,000-mile joint border, and/or from Chad. Although Chad is not an ECOWAS member its President, Idriss Deby, knows that Russia is busy undermining him and that a dictatorship next door, possibly backed by Moscow, would not benefit his medium-term health.

However, the rationale for intervention bumps up against a series of hurdles, not least a 1,000-mile-long frontier.  Part of that border is in Borno State, which to its east also borders Chad. This part of Nigeria has borne the brunt of the Islamist group Boko Haram’s murderous campaign of violence. There are still tens of thousands of displaced people there and the situation remains fragile as it does elsewhere in a country racked by instability. Another factor is that northern Nigeria is where the majority of Nigeria’s 57 million strong Hausa people live, and they have strong cultural ties with the 13 million or so Hausas in southern Niger who comprise just over half of the country’s 24 million population. Nigerian Hausas make up a significant proportion of the military and many would have deep misgivings about fighting their ethnic counterparts across the border. 

Western countries support ECOWAS’s desire not to let the coup stand for many reasons, mostly financial and strategic. Under President Bazoum, Niger was a key partner in combatting the spread of ISIS and Al Qaeda across the Sahel and in curbing the flow of economic migrants heading towards Libya and Tunisia and on to Europe. Indeed, there are hundreds of thousands of refugees from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Nigeria there. If a full-scale war breaks out they may be on the move again. After the coups in Mali and Burkina Faso, Russia’s Wagner Group moved in, and western forces moved out – to Niger.

 France has around 1,500 troops there and there are two small U.S. bases which are used for drone reconnaissance. France also buys about 18% of its uranium for nuclear power from Niger. Despite this, an overt intervention by France is unlikely and Paris is very aware of the rising anti-French sentiment across the Sahelian region. In the event of an ECOWAS operation, western countries would probably restrict themselves to background logistical support. 

The evacuation of westerners from Niger by France, Germany, Spain, and others is prudent, the situation is on a knife edge although conflict is not inevitable and non-military pressure is being applied against the junta. For example, Nigeria, which supplied about 70% of Niger’s electricity use, has disconnected its high voltage lines to the country and the EU has suspended aid. Foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell said the EU “does not recognize and will not recognize the authorities resulting from the putsch in Niger”.

It’s almost as hard to climb down from that as it is from the ECOWAS ultimatum, although the passage of time might allow Brussels to hope that everyone forgets its original position if the coup sticks, and Europe decides it needs to compromise to block further Russian moves in the region. And there’s the westerners’ problem – slam the door shut on the hundreds of millions of dollars they’ve been giving to Niger to discourage coups, and by so doing open another door for Wagner and Russia to move in.

All sides are now manoeuvring. The coup leaders, calling themselves the National Council for the Protection of the Homeland followed up their holding the President hostage by arresting the leader of his political party and several ministers. This gives them lives to play with and therefore cards to play. If the President and others were allowed to leave the country in return for no military activity, each side could try and claim a victory even if for ECOWAS it would be a very small one. 

They need something and it’s not a string of military dictatorships stretching from the Red Sea to the Atlantic – which is a possibility if they get this wrong.

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