The public regrets Brexit – can Labour capitalise?

Amidst the intense interest in the Autumn Statement, much other news, political and otherwise, has been squeezed out of the headlines. Fatigue too plays a large part in how close an eye we keep on things. We know catching Covid can be serious and unpleasant, but we are all fed up with talking about it, for example. Smoking is bad for us, we all know that, but we do not need to be nagged about it.

Brexit is at the top of the pile when it comes to the fatigue factor. No other issue polarises opinion and divides debate so much as Brexit. Yet it is the political issue that will not go away and that dares not speak its name.

This is not a piece about the rights and wrongs of Brexit. It is not a comment on the campaign and its after-effects on our political discourse. Nor is it an examination of the effects of Brexit on the economy since we formally left the European Union. This piece makes no judgement on the merits or otherwise of Brexit. This piece is solely about noting what has become a consistent and established trend in our national opinion on whether Brexit was a good idea.

The latest polling, by the YouGov tracker on the subject, is as stark as it is clear. In hindsight, YouGov asks, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union? The answer: 

Right to Leave: 32% (-3)
Wrong to Leave: 56% (+4)

Via @YouGov, 9-10 Nov
Changes w/ 1-2 Nov

This result records the largest ever view that Britain was wrong to vote to leave the European Union. Who cares, you might say. We have done it and no one is going to re-open the issue. Forget it. Move on.

This trend, however, is significant, and its impact on politics and elections for years to come is profound. For a start, if this opinion trend becomes settled and established, Brexit becomes not an electoral asset for its champions but a great chain around their political necks.

To be associated with Brexit is to now be in danger of being associated with a political mistake, not a popular vote-winning policy. Yet the increasing evidence the polling provides is simply undiscussable at Westminster. A former Cabinet Minister and good friend replied when I asked what the plan is in response to the polling on Brexit, “why are you attacking me in this remainiac way?” That’s fine in gentle conversation between friends, but Conservative strategists need to work out a persuasive and compelling response swiftly.

Secondly, it opens up interesting political ground for Labour. If – if – to some degree turning Britain into a little less of a Brexity place is a vote-winner then we can see another change in the nature of Britain’s relationship coming much sooner than we might think. There are two potential upsides here for Labour. One is that they could win votes by restoring some degree of formal relationship with the EU. The second boon is that simply by discussing it, let alone actually doing it, it will drive huge splits into a Conservative Party desperate to talk about anything else. For Labour the politics are clear and must be tempting.

Brexit and the nature of our relationship with Europe is set to continue to dominate our politics for the foreseeable future, no matter how weary we maybe of discussing the subject.

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