The Tories need a Brexit party election deal right about now

Welcome, to the maddest week yet in Brexit, in which rebel Conservative MPs are expected to join forces with Jeremy Corbyn in a bid to create a law at high speed prohibiting Britain’s departure from the European Union without an agreement being in place.

What could possibly go wrong?

Quite a lot, it seems.

At a meeting held at Chequers, his country retreat yesterday, the Prime Minister decided that any Tory MPs who votes against the government to block no deal or abstain will have the whip withdrawn and be prohibited from standing as a Conservative candidate at the next general election. This is a bold move, particularly because the group of rebels includes a former Chancellor of the Exchequer and several other prominent figures and ex-cabinet ministers. And Oliver Letwin.

If they do vote with Corbyn to create such a law, they will effectively be purged or expelled, Number 10 has made clear. The government has no majority to speak of as it is and this development will make it a minority government facing defeat in a no confidence vote. A Corbyn “caretaker” administration propped up by twenty or so former Tory MPs now no longer seems fanciful, although it is shocking to think that anyone with their brain switched on could countenance it.

Rory Stewart, the favourite of liberal conservatives and anti-Brexiteers, also said that he wants to be included in any purge. “And me too I hope,” he tweeted on hearing that rogue Tory MPs will be punished.

Inevitably, there is outrage about Number 10’s tactics from the usual suspects. Nick Boles, the former Tory MP, said that it proved the Tory party is in the grip of the “hard right”, a hysterical and daft comment. It demonstrates no such thing. It simply underlines what has been apparent since Boris Johnson became Prime Minister, rebuilt his alliance with Michael Gove and appointed Gove’s friend Dominic Cummings as the Capo di Capi in this unorthodox administration.

The trio are determined to get Britain out and they are not messing about, because it has been three and a half years since the voters voted to leave the European Union. Three and a half years.

Johnson’s approach is rooted in an understanding that this has become an existential crisis for the Conservative party, the largest party in the Commons (for now). Either the Tory party gets Britain out of the European Union on 31st of October or it is, in its current form, toast. There have already been three delays and the country has been humiliated by botched negotiations and parliamentary chicanery.

The choice has now become binary. You might want the EU to move rapidly and for there to be a deal. That is my preference too. But although there is some faint hope of movement, a revised Withdrawal Agreement looks highly unlikely. The blunt choice now is effectively between Brexit (deal or no deal) and scrapping Brexit.

In contrast, the rebels and opposition parties are divided on what they want to do with any extension, even if the EU 27 were persuaded to offer it. Some want a rerun of the referendum. Others want to revoke Article 50 immediately. Some factions want to change the government, while others don’t or can’t decide how. What they are all agreed on now is that they they will use this week to try to create  a law which weakens the government’s negotiating hand, attempting to remove the threat of no deal and breaching the constitutional custom, central to the British system, that the sovereign Commons cannot be the Executive. If the Commons hates the Executive it can fire it – utilising a vote of no confidence and assembling the votes to put someone else in place – or by moving to a general election. Even with the wretched Fixed Term Parliament Act in place, the Commons can trigger an election if it really wants one.

An election appears to be where this crisis is headed, either provoked by Johnson saying that Parliament is trying to stop Brexit or by MPs bringing it all crashing down if their bill fails or the government finds a way of blocking it.

Team Johnson’s preference seems to be for an election that takes place after the 31st of October, after Brexit, on the basis that they will just refuse to leave and sit there not answering the phone.

This audacious strategy may not survive contact with the parliamentary realities of this week, however. A contest fought before October 31st – on a Brexit v Stop Brexit basis, held in mid or late October – hoves into view as the crisis comes to a head early.

For that reason, the Tory party could do with a deal, a compact or an understanding, with the Brexit party right about now. The polling shows that the Tories under Johnson can get up to around 35% of the vote with the Brexit party still in business. If the Brexit party stands aside, the Tories get up into 40% territory, against a split opposition.

He won’t stand aside says Nigel Farage, and his candidates have been lined up to stand across the UK – splitting the Brexit vote.

A deal with the Brexit party is not Johnson’s style, and he would prefer to avoid it. In the London mayoralty races he simply refused to acknowledge UKIP, the former party of Farage.

But times change and one has to wonder now, especially when this Number 10 is so audacious, secretive, misleading and capable of surprises in a fast-moving situation.

One of the most curious aspects of the last 48 hours of drama has been the relative – relative – silence of the senior Brexit party figures as Number 10 goes to war with senior Remainers in the Tory party. They seem to be watching and trying to work out whether Boris means it. Do they want to split the Brexit vote and let in a Remain Alliance government in an election?

Let’s see, but don’t be surprised if at some point in the next ten days or so there is the appointment of 50 Brexit party peers. Or a deal on the Tories not standing against the Brexit party in 50 Labour seats in the North of England. Or a statement on the Brexit party standing aside this time thanks to a no deal pledge. Do not be surprised if a picture emerges of Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage in a pub this week having a pint.