The Tory party is in better shape than it deserves

Odtaa is the title of a novel by John Masefield. It stands for “one damn thing after another,” and that is a feeling with which we have all been familiar at times. In recent weeks, I had a prolonged bout of Odtaa in the form of injuries and ailments; none serious individually but adding up to a damn nuisance, Still, it gave me a chance to observe politics, and there was an obvious conclusion which applies to recent years. Odtaa is a gross understatement. 

Some would say that it started with the Brexit result. Others would insist that it accelerated after the 2017 general election. At the beginning of that campaign, a few thoughtful Tories were worried. Jeremy Corbyn was hopeless; Theresa May, impregnable. But would she know how to use her massive majority to promote sensible Tory policies? That was a splendid example of political black humour. The massive majority seeped and haemorrhaged away. 

Then Odtaa really got going. There are excuses for the subsequent chaos: especially the two five-letter words, Covid and Putin. As for the six-letter one, Brexit, whatever view one takes – I was a tepid remainer who believes that we must now make Brexit work – this was not the ideal moment for such a disruptive change. But we did not know that at the time. Anyway, governments have to play the hand which history has dealt them.

Which brings us to a remarkable phenomenon. After everything that has happened, it seems astonishing that the Tory party is still with a seat at the table of political fate, still with cards to play. Rishi Sunak has not lost his authority. He can still command a hearing. That did not appear to be true of the Tories in 1963/64, though the election result was close enough to suggest that a lot of voters had not been won over by Harold Wilson’s meretriciousness. 

But think of poor John Major’s Calvary years, when nothing went right and he was given the doubt of every benefit. Yes, Keir Starmer is 20 points ahead but that could turn into a great expanse of water: a mile wide and a yard deep.

Sunak is still in the game, but he has a disadvantage. Although the new PM is clever, confident, charming and at ease in his own skin, there is a defect among all his qualities. As one might expect from a highly able Wykehamist, he is also a rationalist. In politics, that is not enough.

As the late Alan Watkins often reminded us, politics is a rough old trade. There is no guarantee of a fair outcome. Sunak will need plenty of intellect to steer through the next few months. Let us call that the high road. As soon as he reached No.10, the PM found himself in a crisis. Greatly to their credit, he and Jeremy Hunt stayed calm. The high road is doing reasonably well and the Chancellor may even be able to point to some sunlit uplands, just visible through the storm.

There is also the low road, not to be confused with Boris Johnson’s scheming and plotting. It should largely consist of good news, wherever that can be found, reinforced at times by repetition. That latter point is crucial if the government is to derive the benefit from the latest highly interesting reshuffle. Though everyone knows about food banks, large parts of the British economy are doing surprisingly well. Ministers need to tell us about the number of new high-tech start-ups and the constant flow of new SMEs.

They also need to let voters know just how much the government is spending on the voters’ behalf. It is now around a trillion a year. For propaganda purposes, that should be set out in full: £1,000,000,000,000. On that basis, it should be possible to persuade voters that whatever ills afflict the country, they do not include a deficiency in public spending.

Sunak should set out his stall. Britain has had some very difficult years, as has the whole of the advanced world. We have had to take hard decisions, and the benefits are beginning to appear. Keir Starmer will obviously try to counter this by attacking the Tories’ record. He will happily volunteer to serve as Liz Truss’s PR agency. But the more attention that can be focused on Sunak, abetted by that dramatically promising youngster, Kemi Badenoch, the more that the government will be expressing renewal. 

The PM has also got to persuade his colleagues about the merits of followership. Again, the more he takes the centre of the stage, the easier that ought to be. In a message vacuum, elements of the media will claim that Liz Truss is a serious economic commentator and that Nadine Dorries is worth listening to. There are surely limits but perhaps Boris might try to invent himself as a moralist. With utter shamelessness, anything is possible.

The Tory party is in better shape than it deserves, with a better leader than it deserves. Opportunities are there to be taken.  

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