Even a few days ago, a number of serious geopoliticians doubted whether Vladimir Putin would invade Ukraine. In their view, the costs of doing so would be too great. The Ukrainians would fight, hard and bravely. So Russia would face a heavy butcher’s bill, plus enduring opprobrium, plus lasting economic damage. Equally, the Russians had virtually incorporated Kazakhstan into their sphere of influence, an important strategic and prestige-enhancing gain. So why take risks in Ukraine, where the rewards would be much less bankable?
Expect a far harsher Israeli response to Iran than in April
Tehran will be thinking through how far it wants to take this, even as the ground moves beneath its feet.
