The West responds to Putin’s speech

Western leaders have piled in to condemn Putin today, insisting that his threatening new speech is an act of desperation designed to shore up a collapsing war effort. 

This morning, in a televised address to the nation – Putin’s first such speech since the day Russia began its so-called “special military operation” back in February – he made a three-pronged announcement. 

The Russian leader renewed his nuclear threat to the West, insisting further retaliation was “not a bluff” and “Russia will use all the means at (its) disposal” to defend its territorial integrity. 

He confirmed that pro-Moscow leaders of four occupied areas of Ukraine will hold urgent “referendums”. Those in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions are expected to “vote” on joining Russia between Friday and next Tuesday. 

He also announced that partial mobilisation will start today, meaning “citizens who are currently in reserve, especially those who have served in the army, will be subject to conscription.” Putin has already signed the decree.

Number 10 has labelled the speech a “clear admission” that the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine is failing, while EU council president Charles Michel insisted the bloc will not be intimidated by such threats: “The EU’s support to Ukraine will remain steadfast.”

US President Biden has warned Putin that: “A nuclear war cannot be won – and must never be fought.”

The US, Germany and France have all insisted they would never recognise the results of such “sham” ballots in occupied Ukraine. 

But even if the results of a phoney referendum were not recognised by the West, the move would still help Putin. It would allow him to claim that a Ukrainian offensive in these areas is an attack on Russian territory, legally justifying mobilisation.

For many Russian citizens, the most alarming part of his speech will be the news of partial conscription. 

Russia is estimated to have around two million reservists. These are people who have done their military service, which is compulsory in Russia. At present, the country’s defence minister has said the call-up will be limited to those with some combat experience: 300,000 are understood to fall into this category.

However the actual decree Putin has signed on partial mobilisation is vague, likely deliberately so. This will no doubt spook much of the population. 

While Putin’s address is a response to Moscow’s mounting military losses, it’s unlikely to make him more popular at home. 

High casualty rates have a politically destabilising effect and even these 300,000 reservists with “combat experience” are ill-trained. The call-up will lead to “massive tragedy,” says Alexei Navalny, the jailed Russian opposition figure. 

Reports are already circulating around about flights out of Russia fast selling out this afternoon, and seat prices on them soaring. Google Trends data reveals a spike in searches for Aviasales – Russia’s most popular website for purchasing flights.

Several hundred people have been detained across Russia today as rallies against the military mobilisation took place in areas from the Far East to the capital Moscow.

What’s more, numerous war analysts have pointed out that partial mobilisation of Russian reservists is unlikely to help the Kremlin much in the short-term: It will take months to properly train this cohort and it doesn’t solve Russia’s equipment problems, such as dwindling supplies of long-range precision missiles. 

It’s also hard to imagine that conscripting troops will address the low morale of Russian forces. On the contrary, it may well perpetuate the problem. 

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