The world is more dangerous than we’ve ever known, warns Cameron

“This is a world more dangerous, more volatile, more confrontational than most of us have ever known,” declared David Cameron today, as he called on NATO allies to match Britain’s pledge to spend 2.5 per cent of GDP on defence.

Speaking at the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre in London, the Foreign Secretary urged the West not to allow its adversaries – Russia, China, Iran and North Korea – to “write our future for us”.

As for Britain’s position on the global stage, his message was a nuanced one. On the one hand, the foreign secretary was quick to label the UK “Europe’s foremast military power”, and to remind the audience that Britain has the fifth largest economy in the world. On the other, his words were humbling. The UK must “suffer no illusions” about its global influence, he warned. “We are not a country like the US, whose every decision we make changes the world.”

What does overcoming these illusions mean in practice? It means “building coalitions to get things done”, according to Cameron, who referenced the efforts the UK has made alongside allies to support Kyiv. Which brings up back to his earlier plea that the 2.5 per cent figure should be the benchmark for defence spending. 

While Cameron is pushing for the alliance to adopt a more ambitious target, it’s important to note that the majority of NATO members are yet to even meet the 2 per cent target, set by Barack Obama at NATO Cardiff summit all the way back in 2014. 

Britain is one of 11 member states to hit the target but the average for NATO countries in Europe is estimated at 1.74 per cent. And, as Sir Michael Fallon – who will be speaking at the London Defence Conference in a fortnight – wrote recently in Reaction, “half the alliance, mainly the wealthier half, doesn’t even spend 1.5 per cent.” 

Unsurprisingly, it’s the countries on the front line – the Baltic States, Romania, Poland and Finland – which have found the money to spend more on defence. Poland spent 4 per cent of its GDP on it in 2023, over double the amount it had spent the year before.

The UK government has made much of Sunak’s new pledge to boost defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2030, which amounts to an additional 75 billion pounds over the next six years. But, “the brutal reality”, according to Iain Martin, “is that 2.5 per cent can only be a start”. 

Historical context is key. At the height of the Cold War, the UK spent 4.8 per cent of its GDP on defence. In 1992, two years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, it was still spending 3.8 per cent. And, even at the height of the “peace dividend” when Labour came to power in 1997, the number was still at 2.7 per cent. Admittedly, the country was drowning in a lot less debt back then. But, as Iain wrote recently in Reaction, “the world is clearly far more dangerous now than it was a quarter of a century ago.”

And then, of course, there is perhaps the biggest elephant in the room of all: the extent to which European security is underwritten by the American taxpayer.

The US has been spending around 3.5 per cent of GDP on defence for the last decade and, last year, its GDP was equal to to every other NATO member state combined. Which means Washington alone is responsible for providing over two thirds of the alliance’s overall budget.

The prospect of a re-elected Trump pulling out of NATO entirely is a very stark one indeed. 

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