The world’s cup of troubles is running over – and it is not yet full

These are dark days, beset by grief and fear. The Israelis are about to slam into Gaza. They intend to destroy Hamas’s materiel and eradicate its power structures. If this means killing large numbers of terrorists, most Israelis would have a quick response. So be it.

But it will not be an easy campaign. The IDF will not only have to conduct urban warfare, always difficult and dangerous. There are also the tunnels, which are likely to be booby-trapped as well as imprisoning hostages. They will be a human shield, as indeed will ordinary Gazan civilians. Although the Israelis will not set out to kill women and children, casualties are inevitable and living conditions in Gaza will be ghastly. Much of the international Left will be delighted to heap the blame for this on Israel – and a ruthless Hamas leadership will be equally delighted to provide the film footage.

It is difficult to predict the course of events. Destroying Hamas’s war-fighting capability will take time. Israelis look back with nostalgia to the 1967 War during which Israel defeated three Arab armies, destroyed the Egyptian airforce and acquired large chunks of territory, all in six days. This War has already lasted for longer than that, and it may only just have begun.

So will there be a second front in the North? What are Hezbollah’s intentions, as directed by Iran? Hezbollah has a lot of rockets and could undoubtedly inflict damage. The Mullahs have imperialistic ambitions in the region and though Iranians usually look down on Arabs, and on Sunnis, they may well see an opportunity to win prestige on the Arab street, thus weakening the position of moderate Arab rulers.

But if Hezbollah makes a significant move against Israel, the Americans have virtually threatened to retaliate against Iran. There are recurrent suggestions that a large number of Iranians are fed up with living under a repressive theocracy. The Mullahs may fear that an American punishment would destabilise their rule. Then again, they might see an opportunity to win popularity by whipping up opposition to the Great Satan and playing on traditional Shiite willingness to accept suffering in pursuit of faith. So what will the religious leaders decide? At present, they appear to be waiting on events. Those events are unlikely to lead to a benign outcome.

Hamas has already assisted Iran in one objective. Over recent years, a number of Arab rulers have taken steps to normalise relations with Israel and Saudi Arabia has joined in. Now Hamas has sabotaged this cautiously fruitful diplomacy.

In the long run, the Abraham Accords should not be unsavable, especially if Mohammed bin Salman is eventually willing to take the lead. MBS is an impressive figure who has not been given sufficient credit in the West, especially for the scale of social reforms. The West needs MBS as an ally. Moreover, he clearly recognises that mankind will have less and less enthusiasm for burning oil and that it is vital for the Saudis to modernise and diversify their economy. We should give him every encouragement and wish him every success.

Let us lapse into optimism and assume that the Israelis crush Hamas without a general conflagration in the region. What happens then? Even such an outcome would be unlikely to prevent Premier Netanyahu from losing office. Many Israelis disapprove of him as a man. Others, by no means on the far Left, are opposed to his constitutional and judicial reforms. But a lot of his fellow countrymen could overlook his faults because he kept them safe. That is no longer true. There will be an inquiry, with a great deal of finger-pointing and attempts to shift the blame to others. The probability is that a number of careers will be terminated.

At the end of that process, and if the Hamas-government in Gaza were replaced by Palestinian moderates, could there be a revival of Arab-Israeli diplomacy, and also the most important revival of all: work towards negotiating a two-state solution? At present, as we await more bloodshed and more suffering, that seems a long way over the horizon. For the present, it is as if hope is being drowned in blood.

That may also be happening in Ukraine. The latest Ukrainian offensive has failed. There are reports that the Ukrainians have now lost around 400,000 dead and over a million injured. Worse still, many of the fatalities include technicians, trained NCOs and other vital cadres.  Ukraine seems to be condemned to stalemate and slaughter. More hope is drowning in more blood.

Meanwhile, ancestral voices are prophesying war in the Western Balkans, although one problem may have been solved. In Nagorno-Karabakh, over 100,000 Armenians have been ethnically cleansed. No one seems to care: hardly anyone seems even to have noticed. This is how the human race deals with difficulties. It is time to paraphrase an Irish Parliamentarian, replacing “Ireland’s” with “the world’s”: “The world’s cup of troubles is running over – and it is not yet full.”

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