It is perfectly possible that Scotland will vote to leave the UK in the next couple of years. Voters might decide that they like the euro or more likely the idea of a new, separate Scottish currency (the Nicola?) which would mean a real border with England post-independence. Having a different currency – with all of the hassle that entails for Scottish businesses – from the rest of the UK, where 60% of Scottish exports go, might appeal to Scottish voters. They might also like the idea of having to come up with cash contributions to the EU at the same time as losing the Barnet formula which protects Scottish spending within the UK. People gripped by a powerful idea will vote for all manner of reasons and outcomes if they feel strongly enough about the subject, as recent events have demonstrated.
Even so, the SNP finds itself in a tricky position. Its leaders chunter on about a second independence referendum saying that it must not be denied, when no-one, really, is blocking it, other than an SNP leadership which fears the consequences of holding such a vote and then losing a second time.
Step forward Theresa May, the new Prime Minister, whose initial forays onto this territory have been impressive. Indeed, she has outplayed Scotland First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, so far.
Last week, May’s first trip on becoming Prime Minister was to Edinburgh to see the First Minister, and in the ensuing meetings May made it clear that she is keen to advance with all of the constituent parts of the UK feeding into the Brexit process. Her manner was businesslike and constructive, which the Nats clearly find a little discombobulating. Their leaders tend to be more comfortable with seeking a grievance and condemning “the Tor-ees, the Tor-ees, the Tor-ees” in tones that emphasise the SNP leadership’s moral superiority complex.
May’s polite willingness to listen to ideas from the SNP administration in Edinburgh, has rather put Sturgeon on the spot. Sturgeon says she will fight to protect Scotland from Brexit and secure it a special status. Okay then, what does that mean exactly? Let’s hear it.
The First Minister’s initial positioning and reasoning is downright embarrassing. Andrew Marr in his BBC programme this morning got Sturgeon to muse entertainingly on what all this might look like and got the following confused answers.
Scotland may be able to stay in the EU and the UK, while the rest of the UK leaves the EU, the First Minister suggested. That is not going to happen, not least because it would set a worrying precedent for other EU states with secessionist movements and regions in their midst. It would also be legally a complete nonsense. As the UK signs new trade agreements outside the EU, would Scotland be saying it wanted to be excluded from them? Or would it try to have both? Dual membership for Scotland is a non-starter. And yet the First Minister is seriously entertaining it.
She also seems to be considering a second independence as early as next year, to satisfy her party, which by definition would mean Scots voting before the final terms of the UK/EU post-Brexit agreement are worked out. That seems a reckless way to proceed, giving Scottish voters going into the polling booth little clarity.
May’s approach is potentially canny. She is forcing Sturgeon to do the SNP’s thinking out loud, as Salmond and others burble on excitedly in the background and those Unionists tempted to switch to independence consider what it really means.
If May’s approach works it will steadily expose a basic flaw of logic in the SNP position. Scots – who voted to Remain in the EU – must contend with a changed landscape in which they cannot have it both ways. Brexit is going to happen, hopefully nicely, and there will be new deals with the EU and the outside world by the end of the decade. Do the Scots want to be part of that, in political partnership with countries with which Scotland shares a currency, a banking union, language, family ties and history? Or do they want to leave the UK entirely, establish a new currency and start sending cheques to Brussels?
Answers, please, SNP. No rush…
